BlackBook - Wednesday, 26 January 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 26 January 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


CAULFIELD - Race 1

OTHER

This was one of the more impressive 2yo jump outs or trials you’ll see. The 2yo colt #1 PHILOSOPHER made a mess of them, including a race fit 3yo Brinell in 2nd place, in Heat 6 on Dec 8 in the second fastest 900m time of the morning. He had a trial back in Sep but probably didn’t handle the Heavy track and was given more time after that. He’s a 2021 Magic Millions purchase out of an un-raced sister to the Group placed Peron, so it certainly wouldn’t surprise us to see him target the Magic Millions and although Coolangatta looks to have the race at her mercy, this colt is $101… big watch.

No surprise to see #1 PHILOSOPHER win another jump out impressively, as we’ve posted on Twitter a couple of times. He won his Dec 8 jump out in the fastest time of the morning, backing that up with an easy all the way win in Heat 4 on Dec 22, clocking the second fastest 900m time of the morning. He’s got a very friendly racing pattern, leading in both of his jump outs and even getting the head down in this jump out where he looked relaxed. He’s smart - Blue Diamond?


#2 RAMPANT LION a very slick and big win in Heat 9 on Jan 5 in nice time. He’s an expensive colt, so no doubt he’ll be targeting a Blue Diamond or one of the other big 2YO races.

#2 RAMPANT LION bolted in Heat 1 on Jan 11 having already won a Jan 5 800m jump out with ease as well. The 2yo Frankel colt is flying ahead of his return to the races and couldn’t have jumped out or trialled any better.


#5 MICHELOTTI the clear pick of the 2yo debutants, leading and cruising to a win in Heat 5 on Jan 19 but he did clock the slowest 1000m time of the morning.


CAULFIELD - Race 4

OTHER

#3 ENTHAAR clocked the fastest time of the morning, winning Heat 5 on Jan 10 by a big margin.


The speedy #5 ESTA LA ROCA was (as expected) too speedy as she led from start to finish to win Heat 10 on Jan 17 in slick time.


CAULFIELD - Race 6

OTHER

#3 GROUNDSWELL bolted in over the 1100m in Heat 1 on Jan 10 having won a previous 800m jump out on Dec 31. He’s travelling well ahead of his resumption.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

It's been a quiet week with no Victorian racing on Monday and no runners on Tuesday. We've got a few 'Other' runners here but we've decided to sit this one out and have the no bets.


We're very keen to see how PHILOSOPHER goes second up as he goes on a Blue Diamond path, especially for those that took the early price as he's now into a $7.50 second favourite. He meets a recent jump out/trial star in RAMPANT LION but think he should have his measure here with the race experience, barrier 2 and D Oliver sticking. No official play but think he'll be hard to beat.


If you've got TAB and access to promotions, they're offering a bonus back for 2nd and 3rd if you place a bet on the tote (up to $50). We'll be putting $50 on PHILOSOPHER in Race 1 and $50 on ENTHAAR in Race 4. Both have tiny fields (field of 5 and field of 4) and look hard to beat, but if they don't win, they'll at least place.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.


We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


No plays. Total outlay is 0.00 units.


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +22.39 units at Recommend Price | +59.57 units at Betfair SP

When you sign up, select 'JumpOuts' for how you Heard About them and "JUMPOUTS" in the Promo Code.


PURCHASE - JUSTIFY x NOW NOW FILLY

Some exciting news for us - we have purchase a % of this Justify filly from the Magic Millions 2022 sales. She was a $400k buy and will be trained by Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace while she is majority owned by Coolmore... so very exciting!


She is eligible for Coolmore's Ferrari bonus (read here) and is a half-sister to Group 2&3 winner and Group 1 runner-up in FIESTA, who also earnt over $1.5m in prize money. Here's hoping this filly is just as fast - she certainly has the looks!


We will be posting the trainer updates to our members as we receive them so that you get a taste of ownership without having to pay any of the purchase price or ongoing trainer fees - some extra excitement for our members for no cost. She'll head off to the breakers and hopefully she's gets to the race track as a 2YO! She is still at least 6 months away from even being eligible to race so stay tuned...


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