BlackBook - Wednesday, 25 January 2023
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 25 January 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
PAKENHAM - Race 5
#9 VON HAUKE (12) - C Brown
VON HAUKE is a nice moving colt for Cliff Brown. The 3yo Savabeel colt was a very quiet 4th in a 600m jump out on Dec 14 but not so quiet in his win in Heat 3 on Jan 4. He wasn’t away with a stack of speed but did show some early speed once he got into it rhythm and as a result was overracing when he was forced to take a sit on the leaders. He edged his way out 4-wide just prior to the bend and this is where he finally got clear galloping room and closed superbly over the top of those leaders that he was going so much better than. Lovely win, he looked to have a bit left in the tank and moves nicely so we’re keen to follow this colt into his debut.
There is no doubt that VON HAUKE is a talented colt. We mentioned him following his Jan 4 win where he closed superbly over the top of the leaders. In Heat 1 on Jan 11 he took a similar approach, dropping back to a clear last in the early stages before peeling out very wide and closing off really strongly down the outside under minimal pressure while alongside gallopers who are all better than maiden grade. A son of Savabeel, look for Cliff Brown to place this colt really nicely on debut and he will be running really well.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Pakenham, Race 5
#9 VON HAUKE (9) - C Brown
He was scratched from last Wednesday at Sandown due to the track downgrades, and probably now finds a better race on a bigger and better track for him.
Drawn barrier 9 of 12 with Jamie Kah on board, he's drawn perfectly in the chute to get a lovely trail off the speed and once they come out of that chute, he'll be powering down the middle of the track where we expect him to get over the top of them and win.
He was quickly $4 into $2.60 when markets opened on TAB and he's been supported even more this morning into ~$2.
We're keen to be with him here and will be playing late, think he starts around that ~$2.50 mark.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Warrnambool, Race 2
#13 YELLOW SAM (7) - L Smith
BlackBook jump out comments:
YELLOW SAM has had two career preps with one run in each prep for two 2nd’s, both beaten by only 0.1L, which doesn’t give a lot of confidence but she does have reasonable form. Now returning for her third prep, she was a class above over the 1000m in Heat 6 on Jan 18 and looks to be back in good order so keeping a close eye on her but not expecting anything too special in terms of odds.
No bet (for now) - this is her race to lose but she's just way too short at $1.60 to be recommending a bet, so happy to let her win without us. If she drifts, may entertain a play and message in Telegram.
Last Updated: 8:08am AEDT on Wednesday, 25th January 2023.
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):