BlackBook - Wednesday, 24 November 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 24 November 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


SANDOWN - Race 1

#9 SQUID GAME (10) - P Payne

SQUID GAME just cruised to the line to finish 4th in Heat 9 on Nov 8 following another 4th placing in a Oct 25 and looks to be a smooth mover with some talent. Have to keep him in mind ahead of his debut.

We mentioned SQUID GAME after his previous official trial on Nov 8, but his jump out win in Heat 3 on Nov 16 was certainly his most impressive and he’s one we want to follow into his debut. Sitting a one out one back while following Lip Sip Suk throughout, who has race fitness, before being asked for an effort and responding to come over the top and win over the 1000m. This was an impressive bit of work and think he can make a nice debut (if he stays in Aus considering he’s owned by Price Bloodstock…).


#11 TREPORTI (8) - D O'Brien

TREPORTI has had the two runs this preparation being 3rd to Invincible Caviar and Xtra Gear (gapping 4th by 1.5L that day) and 2nd to Obfuscation with super form coming from the race including 3rd (Cerberus) coming out and winning a Listed race at Morphetville, 4th (Kwoi Hoi) since winning MDN by 4L and 6th (Balsamic Vinegar) since winning. He has had an 8-week freshen up because of a key change in him becoming a gelding, jumping out in Heat 5 on Oct 27 to tick the legs over before resuming as a gelding and expect him to be very hard to beat regardless of what maiden he resumes in.

Keen to follow TREPORTI now as a gelding. We mentioned the super form he had after an Oct 27 jump out, heading back to the jump outs to take out Heat 8 on Nov 12 where he was ridden with a bit more urgency and looked to respond well. With that form behind Invincible Caviar and Obfuscation along with some nice jump outs and the key gear change of becoming a gelding, he looks like he’ll be very hard to beat first up.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Sandown, Race 1 - SQUID GAME + TREPORTI

In typical Melbourne fashion, none of there rain that was going to come Tuesday night came and we're on a Good(4) and it's been quite hot.


Ratings wise, INDY ROSE WARRIOR (+2.3) and MASTERFUL (+3.3) brought in the best last start benchmark ratings with INDY ROSE WARRIOR a scratching race morning. We were on MASTERFUL for a small bet on debut and he can run well here again with barrier 1 and D Oliver taking the ride, but think a couple more are above him.

SURCOTE has jumped out okay on Nov 1 and Nov 12. The horse he beat on Nov 12 is $14 in a weaker Pakenham maiden on Thursday night - he had him covered but not completely convinced. He's a half-brother to Excess Funds.


TREPORTI brings in the third best last start benchmark rating at +7.3, while he also brings in the best peak benchmark rating of -0.1 while his past five runs have rated +3.2, -0.1, +3.0, +5.0 and +7.3. He resumes gelded here and if he runs up to any of those previous runs, he's going to be very hard to beat.

SQUID GAME has jumped out well enough for this and can give a sight on debut - looks a big danger and expect him to run well here.


TREPORTI hasn't finished outside the top four in all six runs to date in his career - he resumes gelded here and has the form and ratings on the board. He's the one to beat for us.

SQUID GAME the best of the debutants and is certainly a danger that worries us.


Going to play both of our runners for even returns with the total outlay a high confidence bet.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 2.75 units.


Sandown, Race 1

TREPORTI ~ 1.50 units WIN @ $4.00 (TAB at 8:10am, Wed)

SQUID GAME ~ 1.25 units WIN @ $4.80 (TAB at 8:10am, Wed)


Overall: +9.11 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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