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BlackBook - Wednesday, 24 May 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 24 May 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


SALE - Race 1

#9 NEVER LET ME GO (7) - R Griffiths & M de Kock

Absolutely superb bit of work from NEVER LET ME GO, showing some lovely closing speed over the concluding stages of Heat 13 on Mar 14 to record a dominate victory in solid time for the morning. This is her second preparation having been last seen finishing 2nd in an official trial on Nov 22 behind the 73-rated 5yo Okay To Pay while ahead of stablemate Serasana (won by 3.2L on debut), the 63-rated 5yo Kermy and the 68-rated 5yo Apache Star, which is very good trial form for an un-raced 2yo that early in their career. She has been given more time and this was a lovely first jump out of the preparation for this 2yo daughter of No Nay Never so a definite watch into another bit of work before hopefully debuting.

Pretty confident that NEVER LET ME GO is a filly with some talent. She wasn’t away great in Heat 6 on May 1 but quickly mustered some speed from the inside draw to take up the lead as she then skipped to a couple length lead at the top of the straight but those behind her did start to catch up to her as they were ridden out and she was relatively quietly ridden. Looking into it more, she ran 3rd with those that ran over her were the 85-rated Mr Exclusive and 78-rated Wolflands while those close behind her were Scantoon, The Gauch and Ocean’s Jen, all older horses with multiple wins under their belt while she’s an un-raced 2yo filly, which adds a lot of value to this jump out. Her jump out on Mar 14 was super and she looks to have a stack of speed. A 1000m maiden on debut against her own age should see her hard to beat.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Sale, Race 1

#9 NEVER LET ME GO (7) - R Griffiths & M de Kock

High.

Don't think this filly could've done much more ahead of her debut here and absolutely deserves to be favourite - she not only did it against 2YO's at the jump outs, but has done it against the older on multiple occasions across her preps, which we think is a massive positive for un-raced 2YO's.


If she runs up to her jump outs, expect her to win this and very keen to be with her.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Sale, Race 2

#3 SHADOWIST (6) - M Smith

BlackBook jump out comments:

SHADOWIST was quite green and looked to have a bit to learn, as you’d expect from an un-raced 3yo, but he was solid in his win of Heat 4 on Apr 18 and love the fact he did so ahead of Shuffle Dancer (who’s coming off a 5-week freshen up following a Group 2 win) with a gap back to 3rd, albeit only over 750m but he did clock the fastest time of the morning. It’s only his first jump out this prep so one for the watchlist.

Sale, Race 2

#4 THINK I'M DIVINE (3) - R Besanko

BlackBook jump out comments:

Certainly a few to follow from Heat 7 on May 1 where they clocked the fastest 800m time of the morning.

Firstly, the winner in THINK I’M DIVINE closed superbly over the top in Heat 7 on May 1 having travelled very wide throughout while sitting on speed, he did it the tough way and it was a lovely first jump out back. He’s an 8-start maiden with only 2x career placings so not getting too carried away but this was nice and following him into another bit of work.

Last Updated: 7:29am AEDT on Wednesday, 24th May 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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