BlackBook - Wednesday, 24 August 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 24 August 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
CLICK HERE TO SEE OUR BLACKBOOK SUMMARY
SANDOWN - Race 1
Despite being under some riding, the I Am Invincible colt in #6 GARZA BLANCA closed well in Heat 8 on Aug 9, getting nabbed late on the line by the stakes placed Wee Nessy. He didn’t have much room in the straight in his first jump out on Jul 25, but he managed to get a lovely run up the fence in this trial and responded to Ethan Brown’s urges as he looks to be a good sized colt. He was a $700k Magic Millions purchase back in 2021, being out of a half-sister to the star stallion Starspangledbanner, so certainly some expectations on this colt ahead of his debut as a 3yo.
The New Zealand import in VICTORIA ROC look absolutely superb as she cruised into 2nd place in Heat 20 on Aug 9, a super trial to back up a quiet Jul 27 jump out and she looks very smart. There was a 5L gap to 3rd here, so we have to mention the winner in #9 JOVIAL WAGON who won Heat 20 by 1L ahead of Victoria Roc, closing well after settling last in the early stages. The 3yo gelding was ridden out, but responded to riding and was put away late to cruise over the line. He showed a nice turn of foot in a Aug 1 jump out as well and looks to be a gelding that has come back in good order.
Superset cruised to a narrow victory in Heat 15 on Aug 9, but it was the work of the un-raced #13 PENCILLED OUT the caught the eye. She was listed as coming 4th, but she would’ve lost by all of 0.5L alongside the likes of Superset and Smiling Amos, both of whom are previous winners. This filly just cruised throughout with Lachie King not moving a muscle, so she certainly had more to give if asked. Keep an eye on this Savabeel filly.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Sandown, Race 1
Nice race for a Wednesday maiden - we have the 3x runners + we didn't mind WHO DARES who ran 2nd to subsequent Listed winner Fast Witness on debut.
Very hard to split our runners, they all come from those official trials at Cranbourne - GARZA BLANCA clocked 46.50s, PENCILLED OUT 46.67s and JOVIAL WAGON was over 1000m. It's a Heavy9 track as well, so they have to handle the conditions. Leaving this race alone - if putting them in an order, going with 6-9-13-12.
#6 GARZA BLANCA (8) - C Maher & D Eustace
#9 JOVIAL WAGON (2) - M Price & M Kent Jnr
#13 PENCILLED OUT (10) - R Griffiths & M de Kock
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Sandown, Race 2
#9 RUDY RUDE (3) - V Malady
His jump out on Aug 15 post his 1UP run was absolutely super. Thought he might go to a bit easier race than a Wednesday BM64, but the step up from 1118m to 1400m here suits and he's drawn nicely to get a lovely run. Monitor his price, he's $26+ this morning and likely gets out further - could have a small spec bet (~$10).
Randwick, Race 1
#4 SCORCH (4) - M, W & J Hawkes
If you've been watching our Trial Videos (The Early Bird), you'll know that Dean mentioned him in this weeks episode after some nice NSW trials and he looks to go well. He's a half-brother to In Her Time and has trialled up very slick - there is an opinion of him and he should be running well here on debut. Can have a bet.
Last Updated: 8:11am on Wednesday, 24th August 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
676x runners | 203x winners (30%) & 213x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.27 WIN $2.31 PLC
958x runners | 220x winners (23%) & 264x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.62 WIN $3.08 PLC
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $10 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):