BlackBook - Wednesday, 23 March 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 23 March 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.

GEELONG - Race 2

#3 DUN WARRIOR (1) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

Fair win by the un-raced 3yo gelding DUN WARRIOR, taking out Heat 1 on Oct 5 by several lengths. Potentially gelded from his trial back in Feb, this was his second jump out after finishing 2nd on Sep 28 with Fighter Pilot since running 3rd in in a MDN. Treading carefully, but this was a nice win.

DUN WARRIOR looks like he has a stack of talent. The 3yo gelding won jump outs on Sep 28 and Oct 5 by a huge margin to back up this 3L win in Heat 3 on Oct 14 over the 1100m in a very slick time that was the quickest of the 3x on the day. Very simple win, jumping well straight to the front before kicking away around the bend when given a little tickle and eased down late. He was a clear class above. He was only a $25k purchase at the Inglis Online Sales and is a full-brother to the 6 start maiden Dundeel Star.

WARWICK FARM - Race 2

OTHER

He came last on Feb 18 but the work of #8 WATERFORD late and past the line in Heat 5 on Mar 4 alongside the likes of Crosshaven was super. The 3yo colt is an import having had the one start in Great Britain over 1400m when 3rd and he looks to be quite a nice moving colt. Looked liked D Oliver was on board so look for him to stick on debut.

OUR THOUGHTS

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Sandown, Race 1 - DUN WARRIOR

Very interesting runner here - his official trial ahead of Pagan back in Oct 2021 was simply super, and that runner has since ran 2nd and 1st in MDN’s in Aus before heading over to Hong Kong. He hasn’t quite reached those heights this preparation though, finishing 5th in a pair of jump outs on Feb 21 and Mar 7 over 1000m before stepping up to 1200m on Mar 15 and finishing 2nd where he looked a lot more comfortable, splitting previous winners in Brooklyn Boss and Saint Tropez.

We were expecting him to head over to Hong Kong, but it looks as though he may have not met all the necessary requirements (e.g. passing the vet test) that HK require in order to get over there - it is quite extensive.

Despite the latest jump outs being probably only fair, that October trial was simply superb and if he can get back to that, he'll go very well here. He might also be one that will be better over a bit further, so certainly keen to see him here. For now though, we get him popping up in a 1400m MDN on debut in Aus at Sandown, and we'll be looking to back him.

Quite a nice maiden and probably expect him to drift a little but also wouldn't be surprised if he gets some market support. We're going to go 50/50 stakes on Fixed Price (1.25u) and Betfair SP (1.25u) for a total 2.50 unit outlay.

TAB also have a bonus back up to $50 if he comes 2nd or 3rd, you just have to play the tote which is worth a $50 (bet here).

OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.

We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.

Total outlay is 2.50 units.

Sandown, Race 1

DUN WARRIOR ~ 1.25 units WIN @ $3.40 (Bet365)

DUN WARRIOR ~ 1.25 units WIN @ Betfair SP

Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +4.86 units at Recommend Price | +41.42 units at Betfair SP

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