BlackBook - Wednesday, 23 February 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 23 February 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


SANDOWN - Race 4

OTHER

#5 FIRE is flying. His Jan 17 trial win at Rosehill over 902m was super and he backed that up with a super Jan 31 trial over 900m also at Rosehill, where we mentioned him as one to follow on Twitter. He’s now come down to VIC and bolted in Heat 6 on Feb 18 over the 800m and looks primed to make his return to the races after pulling up shin sore in both forelegs last start. If he goes through his grades, he’s certainly one to follow.


SANDOWN - Race 7

OTHER

#8 STRETTO is a very interesting runner. He’s a 5yo who is now with Maher & Eustace having previously been with Matt Cumani for his 15 career starts. He only has the 1 career win, but has 9 placings and has always shown some talent. He resumes for the new stable with a very key gear change of now being a gelding, which may really switch him on and fulfil that talent he’s always shown. He was well held in his first jump out on Feb 1 over 800m, but as he stepped up to 1000m in Heat 15 on Feb 14, he’s won by a big margin in quick time and was very impressive. He’s 64-rated, so look for a BM64 first up but he’s always shown better than BM64 talent… he’s a massive watch first up, this might be the making of him despite now being a 5yo gelding.


MOUNT GAMBIER - Race 6

OTHER

ZOU DANCER finished 2nd in Heat 3 on Feb 1 to #6 AMAZEBALLS, who looked to have him covered. She’s a lightly raced 6yo mare with only the 6 starts and looks to be tracking well enough to give a country BM58 a shake first up.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Sandown, Race 4 - FIRE

Last preparation, FIRE's first up run rated +0.4 while his second up run rated -0.8, which was a 2.8L MDN win at Bendigo. His next run was a clear forgive after pulling up shin sore, but even then that run rated +4.0 which is the third best last start rating of this race. He is absolutely flying at the trials and jump outs and if he simply returns to near either of his first two runs last preparation, he is going to take a lot of beating.


Should just be winning this - would've loved a little bit of the $3.60 open price as he's now been smashed into ~$2, which we're still happy to take. He's a sub-$1.80 pop.


Sandown, Race 7 - STRETTO

Resumes for the new stable of Maher & Eustace along with a bunch of gear changes (with the key being that he's been gelded) and not to mention that he's flying at the jump outs, so it wouldn't surprise to see STRETTO finally get that second career win.

Last preparation he ran first up on 24 Feb 2021 over 1300m at Sandown at an SP of $4.50 where he ran 9th of 10 - this is practically the identical race, 12 months later. Jamie Kah is booked to ride from barrier 6 as he resumes in that BM64 over 1300m - all signs point to a lovely return run here.


The stablemate in SIR DAVY looks the obvious danger and is probably the one to beat but was happy to have a small bet on STRETTO.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.


We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 4.25 units.


Sandown, Race 4

FIRE ~ 3.00 units WIN @ $2.10 (TAB)

*look to play $50 of this on Tote on TAB as they have a bonus back offer for 2nd and 3rd up to $50*


Sandown, Race 7

STRETTO ~ 1.25 units WIN @ $5.00 (TAB or Bet365 (which has a bonus back))


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): -0.49 units at Recommend Price | +36.31 units at Betfair SP

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