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BlackBook - Wednesday, 22 February 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 22 February 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Sale, Race 4

#8 WALTER SPUR (6) - S Eden

Medium.

The form guide reads 7th of 9 for only one jump out on Jan 23, but it was a super bit of work. He dropped out to a clear last in the early stages, tact onto the back of the field as they approached the turn and he cruised to the line with no room to go. If he had actually had room and/or been asked for an effort, he could’ve easily gone close to winning this, which is super considering the quinella was Muramasa and Wee Nessy.

He ran 2nd on debut at Geelong on a Heavy(10) track behind Chaseton with a 1.5L gap back to Michelotti in 3rd who then ran 3rd in a MDN before winning two in a row (a MDN and 2YO HCP). He did similar to his recent jump out in this race, dropping to the back of the field before cutting up the inside to close superbly into 2nd place, clocking the meetings fastest L800m/600m/400m and second fastest L200m.


That debut run is solid form, but love that he resumes gelded here and on the back of a sneakily good jump out, albeit only one JO.

Before scratchings, this wasn't the easiest of races but now follow scratchings, DOULL (ran 1.8L off Giga Kick two starts ago) looks to be the only real one to be worried about so think he's a really good bet now.


We're not getting the same sort of price, but in a 5-horse field, he'll be running super.

Plenty of bonus back offers on Sportsbet and BETR where he only has to beat two home too...

Last Updated: 7:45am AEDT on Wednesday, 22nd February 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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