BlackBook - Wednesday, 22 December 2021
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 22 December 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
SANDOWN - Race 2
We were on #2 PAGAN on debut when he was a massive drifter in betting but still ran well to get 2nd to a smart Writey O’pal. He was wide without cover that day, which adds merit to his run and not to mention this race was ran in 1:11.48s which was quick for the day in comparison to the other 1200m races being won in 1:12.22s (MDN), 1:12.54s (CL1) and 1:11.11s (BM70). A tick over trial for him here in Heat 2 on Dec 15 with Craig Williams sticking with him, he’ll run well second up.
#10 NEWLEY WED has been showing some really nice closing speed in her jump outs to suggest she might have some talent. In both of her jump outs she’s sat in behind the speed before peeling out in the straight and closing over the top. She was 2nd in her first jump out on Nov 19 and backed it up with a 2nd in Heat 8 on Nov 26. This 3yo daughter of Savabeel looks to move really well and we’re keen to follow her into a debut, which looks close. She looks classy.
SANDOWN - Race 8
#3 HERE TO SHOCK looks to have returned well as he finished 3rd in Heat 2 on Nov 16 but was very quietly ridden and hard held throughout. His last three runs were in Group 1’s, so we’d expect him to go back to town but would love to see him in a BM70 first up before heading back to town.
Always had an opinion of #3 HERE TO SHOCK and while his win in Heat 7 on Nov 30 comes as no surprise, he looks to be in good order ahead of his return. Hoping he goes to a benchmark race first before going back to town though.
#13 OCEAN’S JEN certainly hasn’t taken a backwards step since crossing over to the Maher & Eustace yard, bolting in Heat 5 on Dec 7 over the 1000m following a Nov 22 jump out. Follow her into a 1200m-1300m BM64 first up.
Sandown, Race 2
This is a good race between the top three in the market - two of those are our runners.
SAVONIA beat home NEWLEY WED first up, where she ran the 6th fastest L200m of the meeting. NEWLEY WED didn't have a great run in transit at all, so there was some excuses. These two bring in the best last start ratings at +1.2 and +1.3 respectively.
We were also on PAGAN on debut, with that run rating +2.1, but he ran into a smart one of Michael Huglin's. He looked as though he'd appreciate a bit more distance, so the step up to 1300m should suit and his trial in between these runs was super. No Craig Williams today as he's away.
SHALILY brings in the fourth best last start rating behind these three runs, but it's a decent way back at +7.5.
With SAVONIA, NEWLEY WED and PAGAN all around the $3.30-$3.50 mark and very hard to split, it's a race we're going to leave.
Sandown, Race 8
We were a huge fan of this 4yo back as a 3yo in his first preparation and he was quite handy. He was 3.9L off the Group 1 Australian Guineas and 5L off the Randwick Guineas, which is far superior form to anyone in this race. He's had a nice spell following a long-ish preparation, returning here following a bunch of jump outs that should have him raring to go first up.
The worry is the barrier - barrier 14 of 14 is going to be very tricky to overcome. Regardless, think he's a good bet at the $4+ and should be a shorter priced favourite around the $3 - $3.50 mark. Happy to have a medium confidence bet.
As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
No bets. Total outlay is 1.50 units.
Sandown, Race 8
HERE TO SHOCK ~ 1.50 units WIN @ $4.20 (TAB at 8:45am)
Overall: -3.95 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).
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