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BlackBook - Wednesday, 21 June 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 21 June 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


MORNINGTON - Race 1

#7 EMBARQUE (7) - G Begg

We liked the work of EMBARQUE in her first jump out this preparation, winning Heat 6 on May 29 over the 990m after trailing the field for most of the heat but easily closing the best late albeit under minimal jockey pressure. She’s a 3yo Zoustar filly that is the older sister to the recently Group-1 placed Bases Loaded and looks to be a nice mover herself.


The flashy Zoustar filly EMBARQUE was back at it again as she bolted in Heat 4 on Jun 12 and it was the way in which she won that was mightily impressive, sitting on speed and leading throughout as she was then put under a little pressure at the top of the straight as she was challenged and she just went bang, opening up that massive margin and clocking the second fastest time of the morning behind only Katsu. She was good over 1000m on the synthetic track in a May 29 jump out and now looks primed for her debut. If she can be half as talented as her younger brother in Bases Loaded, she’ll win most maidens on debut.


OTHER

OUR RED MORNING (ex-RED IN THE MORNING) was purchased from NZ following two runs and based on her two Aus jump outs, she looks a nice mover despite having a bit of an ordinary head carriage. The 3yo daughter of Redwood closed super in an 800m jump out on May 1 when closing into 3rd and did the same in Heat 20 on May 15, also closing really nicely into 3rd place, this time over 1000m. In this jump out she settled last and closed down the outside of the field to make up big ground under minimal pressure in a really nice bit of work. Looks a nice filly.


MORNINGTON - Race 2

OTHER

Following 8-starts for only 1x placing as a colt, the Susie Wells trained 4yo I’M DYNAMITE has now been gelded and that looks to have really switched him on, winning his first jump out back over 1000m in Heat 20 on Jun 5 as he closed well down the outside of the track when asked to extend. First up last prep he ran 3rd to Bews and subsequent winner Costless at Sale at a massive $91 SP, so it wouldn’t surprise to see him run well first up as a gelding following this.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Mornington, Race 1

EMBARQUE on top with OUR RED MORNING the danger so backing both for even returns.

#7 EMBARQUE (7) - G Begg

Medium.

Her jump outs have been superb and she really can't do much more ahead of her debut - she deserves to be the favourite and expecting her to run like it.


Love that latest JO on the Heavy where she was put under a little pressure late and went bang to open up a huge margin, the wet should be no issues here and expecting her to push forward to sit on speed from the barrier.


She's the one to beat and we wanted to be betting but she's now ~$1.60, which is too short to recommend betting at. Look to play her late and we want $1.80+ (as close to $2 as possible).

Adding to that as the track's a Heavy10, we'll ½ stake.

#10 OUR RED MORNING (13) - G Eurell

Low/Medium.

Her debut was a shit show and we were on - she finished 9th but was a moral beat and should've won. She has the complete opposite issues here having drawn barrier 13, there will be no getting trapped with no room but instead will be forced to race wide.


It looks as though she runs into a smart one here second up though as EMBARQUE will be hard to beat, but happy to bet her as well at the ~$8 and use the bonus back options here (TAB and Sportsbet).

Same as above, due to the Heavy track, we'll ½ stake.

Mornington, Race 2

#1 I'M DYNAMITE (8) - S Wells

Low/Medium.

He ran well first up last prep and then was only solid in his subsequent three runs. He's been gelded and given time with a long break of 9 months so if he comes back improved here (as his trial suggests) in a race that lacks some quality, he could run a cheeky race.


He's a nice price at $10+ so happy to bet and find out if this gelding has done the job or not.

Last Updated: 7:52am AEDT on Wednesday, 21st June 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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