BlackBook - Wednesday, 20 April 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 20 April 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


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BENDIGO - Race 3

OTHER JIGSAW has been gelded and was certainly back to his usual ways, winning Heat 7 on Apr 11 over the 850m in the fastest time of the morning at 50.60s, well ahead of the days average of 51.67s. This gelding might be the making of him as a late-3yo and 4yo! He wasn’t without a challenger though, despite the huge gap back to 3rd.

The 3yo filly #8 BAEKDU was back at the jump outs after hanging out ridiculously first up at Cranbourne when beaten 13.6L after starting a $1.95 favourite… She’s always jumped out well and this was no exception and we’re sure Mick Price will be hoping she can put it together on raceday for once as she has shown enough too suggest she can certainly win a maiden. Doubt she’ll be a beating prospect though after starting $1.60, $1.60 and $1.95, so one to just keep in mind.


BENDIGO - Race 6

OTHER

#5 STAY IN TOUCH is certainly staying in winning touch, bolting in Heat 1 on Apr 13 following a 4-week freshen up. The 4yo mare is still only in her first career preparation with the 4x starts for 3x wins and a 2nd and she looks as though she can build on that the she gets back to the races after this slick jump out.

 
OUR THOUGHTS (NO BETS)

Bendigo, Race 3 - BAEKDU

She's just a bit hard to trust at ~$2.10 based on her past performances. She was a beaten $1.60 in both of her 2x runs in her debut preparation before a spell - she then won a jump out before a first up run this prep and ran off the track, again starting a short priced $1.95 favourite. She gets the crossover noseband and lugging bit on, which will hopefully help her second up here.


She handled the Heavy8 and Heavy9 tracks in her debut prep, so expect the wet track to be no issue here. Ignore her last run (even though it's still the fourth best last start rating of this race...), her 2x runs in her debut prep rated +3.6 and +12.4, which would both have her very competitive here in a poor race. The best last start rating of the race is only +13.3 by Kaleidoscope Eyes - this is a very winnable.


We'll be monitoring to see if she drifts in betting, but doubt that happens given her SP profile so this will be a watch (no bets) for us. Just no value in the ~$2.15 and we won't miss much if she does win and we don't play at that price anyway.


Interested to see DASHING REBEL here though. He was 2nd in a Mar 29 jump out to New Enterprise (who came out and won on debut ahead of Belle Et Riche, sorry to remind everyone…) while defeating stayed Alors Tu Crois who then finished 9th in a Listed race over 1800m at Morphetville. He then won a Apr 7 jump out ahead of Princess Nefertiti who ran 3rd in that same New Enterprise race while the 3rd horse from this jump out in Giallo ran 4th on debut at Penola. Think the 1100m will be at the bottom end of his distance range being by Dissident and is a full-brother to Rogue Rocker who has 4x wins from 9x career starts in QLD while his mum is an un-raced full-sister to Sailing By who was Group 2 placed over 1400m. He was as much as $126/$17, now into $41+ (likely drifts) and might run a cheeky race at a big price? Wouldn't be putting anything more than $5 on him though (at an absolute maximum).


OUR BETS

No plays. Total outlay is 0.00 units.


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +10.44 units at Recommend Price | +43.96 units at Betfair SP

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