BlackBook - Wednesday, 2 March 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 2 March 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


SANDOWN - Race 1

OTHER

We mentioned #2 GOLDEN VITRINE after a jump out as a 2yo back on Jun 8 at Caulfield where he showed a lovely turn of foot. He showed that same turn of foot as he closed very well down the middle of the track to win Heat 17 on Feb 15 over 1000m having sat just off the pace throughout prior to showing that nice turn of foot once asked for an effort. This was his second jump out following a well held Feb 3 jump out when 2nd. He’s a full-brother to the smart Showmanship (7 wins from 8 career starts) and was a $500k purchase from the 2020 NZ Karaka sales with a very noticeable owner in Mr Brae Sokolski. He’s a 3yo colt to monitor when he makes his debut.


#3 HEAVENLY EAGLE had previously won a jump out on Jan 12 over 1000m ahead of Golden Shamrock (since 3.6L off a CL1) prior to this trial. Sticking to 1000m, the 3yo gelding had a lovely run during Heat 14 on Feb 7 as he settled midfield with cover before just cruising to the line under no pressure from Ben Allen in the saddle. He looked to have a fair bit left under the hood and looks to be one to keep an eye on for when he debuts.


SANDOWN - Race 2

OTHER

A couple of 2yo’s to follow from Heat 3 on Oct 8. IDRIS went to the line with Magic Carpet (since 4th) up the straight on Sep 14 and looked to travel nicely in this heat. The one to take was #3 EXCEED THE DREAM, a full-sister to Wizard Of Oz who was a $1.1m purchase at the 2020 MM Gold Coast Yearling Sale. It was only her first jump out and she looked to move very well and did it with ease.

*she has changed stables from Ben & JD Hayes to Phillip Stokes and has more recently had a Pakenham jump out on Feb 15*


SANDOWN - Race 3

OTHER

#7 HYDRO STAR certainly hasn’t lived up to the hype, and he was back at the jump outs with a nice win in Heat 13 on Feb 7 as he cruised to the line where he clocked really nice time in the process, the third fastest 800m heat of the morning behind the likes of Forgot You and King Magnus. Can he return to somewhere near his best? If so, then he is way too good for BM58 level despite being only 60-rated…

#7 HYDRO STAR won again, stepping up to 1000m and taking out Heat 2 on Feb 23 in the second fastest time of the morning. He was given a push over the concluding stages to really bring him on for his first up run - would want him to go to a BM58 first up to get involved.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Sandown, Race 1

HEAVENLY EAGLE is going to be hard to beat here second up - he finished 2nd to Chain on debut over this track and distance a couple of weeks ago, defeating SPRING VALLEY by 1.3L who was back in 3rd. That run rated +1.9 for HEAVENLY EAGLE and +3.1 for SPRING VALLEY and they are the clear top last start ratings ahead of I AM YOURS third at +7.2.


GOLDEN VITRINE jumped out well but looks like a bit of an ask on debut at Hillside to beat those with some race fitness/experience and good from/ratings on their side.


HEAVENLY EAGLE on top and hard to beat here.


Sandown, Race 3 - HYDRO STAR

HYDRO STAR has been jumping out super but he doesn't strike the easiest first up assignment, a 1000m BM64 on a Wednesday at Sandown against some race fit gallopers with much better recent form on the board. In saying that, he does usually go alright first up (3: 1-0-1 with the unplaced effort a 4th in a BM64 at Cranbourne). He gets some gear changes here and draws beautifully with barrier 4.


We would've much preferred to see him go to a BM58 for an attempted easy kill to get the confidence up but this race does reflect the stables confidence and opinion that they've always had in/of him.


Not a stack of confidence but certainly had worse 0.50 unit bets and happy to have a tiny play on him today as he goes around, jump outs were too good to ignore. Potentially look to play TAB for the Tote bonus back offers.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.


We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 0.50 units.


Sandown, Race 3

HYDRO STAR ~ 0.50 units WIN @ Betfair SP


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): -5.44 units at Recommend Price | +30.88 units at Betfair SP

When you sign up, select 'JumpOuts' for how you Heard About them and "JUMPOUTS" in the Promo Code.



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