Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 2 August 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
SALE - Race 3
AKROTIRI was always out the back in the early stages of Heat 16 on Jul 10 but was superb late, closing very quickly to finish 4th but only 1L off the winner. He had the 2x JO’s in a previous prep following his purchase after a Jul 19 NZ trial, this being his first this prep and over 1000m, one to keep a close eye on.
Another lovely jump out for AKROTIRI in cruise control, finishing 2nd in Heat 16 on Jul 17 over the 1200m having cruised in a previous Jul 10 jump out over 1000m where he closed really well late. As mentioned, he was purchased following a Jul 19 NZ trial, yet to be fully tested this prep in Aus but looks to be a nice mover that can go well on debut, likely eventually heading over a bit of distance.
SALE - Race 8
FULL BLOWN broke his maiden at his fourth start and then was tipped out where he was gelded as well. He returned in very ordinary fashion, finishing last by 13.2L and as a result was given a let up, returning after 9 weeks in Heat 12 on Jul 21 for a superb jump out win with the blinkers going on as well. He’ll run a much better race in his return.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Runners | Confidence - Comments |
Sale, Race 3 | ​ |
#1 AKROTIRI (8) - C Alderson | Low/Medium. Thought his JO's were super and like the 1000m/1200m base he has, albeit likely meaning he'll need further than the 1400m here on debut. It's as simple as that we think he's worth a bet on the back of those JO's. Thought the ~$6 was about right but will play ½ Fixed and ½ SP. |
Sale, Race 8 | ​ |
#5 FULL BLOWN (10) - M Moroney | Low. Not a stack of confidence here considering how bad that 1UP run was but blinkers go on, JO in between runs was good and B Shinn is on board. Having a bet but will be ½ staking while also betting ½ Fixed and ½ SP. |
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Sale, Race 2 #2 PLANET MARS (2) - J Dore | BlackBook jump out comments: PLANET MARS has now won two from two at the jump outs and looks to be move well enough to be competitive on debut. This 3yo gelding is owned and trained by Mr Jim Gore, who has only had 16x runners (being only 2x horses) since 2021, so certainly a very small stable. He won a 600m jump out on Jun 21 and backed that up over 750m in Heat 5 on Jul 4 with another win as he traveled easily along the rail. He can run well on debut and should be a price being from a small stable. PLANET MARS couldn’t make it 3 from 3 at the jump outs as he finished 2nd in Heat 4 on Jul 18, but he didn’t do his credentials any harm as this was a solid bit of work and most importantly, over 1000m having previous won jump outs over 600m on Jun 21 and 750m on Jul 4. They didn’t break any time records, but liked how he sat off them here and closed nicely late having led in both his previous jump outs. He’ll be ready to go on debut and can run a cheeky race. |
Sale, Race 2 #7 JENNIFERANCE (7) - P Keane | BlackBook jump out comments: JENNIFERANCE showed some nice closing speed to win Heat 10 on Jul 19, settling in the second half of the field before getting the gaps over the concluding stages including an inside run along the rail where she showed a lovely turn of foot when asked to win quite nicely in the end, albeit in slow time for the morning. She cruised to the line in a previous 750m Pakenham jump out where this 3yo daughter of Inference looks a nice mover and one we can follow on debut. |
Last Updated: 7:52am AEDT on Wednesday, 2nd August 2023.
STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):
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