BlackBook - Wednesday, 19 January 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 19 January 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


SANDOWN - Race 1

OTHER

Wouldn’t surprise to see #4 DICKENSIAN head to the races now as it seems to be the prep’s Moody goes with - jump out win, spell, one jump out win and then to the races. The 3yo gelding took out Heat 8 on Jan 5, ridden out late but responded well to the riding as he extended away past the line, clocking above average time for the morning in the process.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Sandown, Race 1

The top four in the market are all really even - happy to leave this one and have no bets. Even FORGED has been running well without winning.


We were on HER EMPIRE first up, who was a moral beat. Has been scratched from several races since and pops up here - with even luck, she should be running well.

DICKENSIAN jumped out well on the one occasion and as expected, heads straight to the races. Has barrier 1 and should be in the finish here.

MASAKO will be peaking now third up after two 2nd's to kick off her career.

AWARD ME has jumped out okay as well - get Jamie Kah on board but is probably the fourth pick of those top four.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we're putting more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.


No plays. Total outlay is 0.00 units.


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +23.69 units at Recommend Price | +56.87 units at Betfair SP


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