BlackBook - Wednesday, 18 January 2023
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 18 January 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
SANDOWN - Race 1
#5 VON HAUKE (3) - C Brown
VON HAUKE is a nice moving colt for Cliff Brown. The 3yo Savabeel colt was a very quiet 4th in a 600m jump out on Dec 14 but not so quiet in his win in Heat 3 on Jan 4. He wasn’t away with a stack of speed but did show some early speed once he got into it rhythm and as a result was overracing when he was forced to take a sit on the leaders. He edged his way out 4-wide just prior to the bend and this is where he finally got clear galloping room and closed superbly over the top of those leaders that he was going so much better than. Lovely win, he looked to have a bit left in the tank and moves nicely so we’re keen to follow this colt into his debut.
There is no doubt that VON HAUKE is a talented colt. We mentioned him following his Jan 4 win where he closed superbly over the top of the leaders. In Heat 1 on Jan 11 he took a similar approach, dropping back to a clear last in the early stages before peeling out very wide and closing off really strongly down the outside under minimal pressure while alongside gallopers who are all better than maiden grade. A son of Savabeel, look for Cliff Brown to place this colt really nicely on debut and he will be running really well.
We wanted to monitor #11 TICK TOCK LADY into another jump out following a solid bit of work on Dec 12 and her win in Heat 9 on Dec 28 is exactly what we wanted to see. The 4yo mare took up a forward position early before being given a reminder late and closing superbly to and through the line when winning. She’s a lovely moving mare and should be running well on debut wherever she goes.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Sandown, Race 1
A very very winnable race for both of our runners and would be surprised if one of them didn't win.
#5 VON HAUKE (2) - C Brown
His jump outs have been super and he's had the 3x of them that should have him ready to go first up. He maps beautifully here with barrier 2 and Jamie Kah on board to get a nice trail on the leaders and look to go bang over the top late.
He's our top pick here, he should be running really well. Backing him and Tick Tock Lady.
LATE SCRATCHING due to track downgrade.
#11 TICK TOCK LADY (1) - G Begg
She's another that has been jumping out well and has also had the 3x JO's to have her ready to go first up. She's our second pick here and is certainly a winning chance, but think she might just run into one better here in Von Hauke, which is annoying as she'd be a good bet in any other race.
Backing her as well for an even return with Von Hauke (which is our approach), or at least having a saver on her if you don't like this approach.
Last Updated: 8:30am AEDT on Wednesday, 18th January 2023.
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):