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BlackBook - Wednesday, 17 May 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 17 May 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


BENDIGO - Race 1

OTHER

Super bit of work from THE SHAPER in Heat 6 on May 9. He jumped well, but was heavily restrained and dropped back to last as the two leaders kicked away. He was a good 10L off them approaching the turn as he was put under pressure and really responding, closing superbly over the final 200m to get up and win while those leaders were all out of petrol. Lovely bit of work from this 2yo son of Street Boss, he showed a lovely turn of foot.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Bendigo, Race 1

#8 THE SHAPER (5) - A & S Freedman

Low/Medium.

His first jump out left a bit to the imagination as he finished last out the back, but his latest trial showed an impressive turn of foot as he made up a stack of ground to get over the top and win.


Billy Egan rode in that trial and sticks here first up where he should get a lovely run in transit from barrier 5 out the chute start at Bendigo over 1100m.

He's actually jumped out the gates well in both his bits of work but they have elected to take him back, so hoping to see him settle at worst midfield here from a clean getaway and if so, he can really power home late and looks a worth gamble. Think he can run a nice race on debut here.


There's a few bonus back offers available across TAB and Sportsbet so encourage you to make the most of them.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Bendigo, Race 1

#9 TRUSTFALL (3) - D Bowman

BlackBook jump out comments:

TRUSTFALL’s first jump out wasn’t great, finishing last (7th of 7) but he was slowly away and always out the back, never in the jump out at any stage. His work in Heat 6 on May 1 was quite good though as he sat in the 3-wide with cover position before edging out around the bend and closing quite nicely as he was put under pressure late, displaying a turn of foot that you liked to see. One to monitor.

Happy Valley, Race 5

#7 HELLS BELLS (9) - D Whyte

BlackBook jump out comments:

VINGEGAARD was a nice winner of Heat 6 on Nov 7, but it was the clear slowest 1000m time of the morning at 1:04.60s vs the days average of 1:02.64s. The 3yo Sooboog gelding also won a Sep 22 jump out and seems to move well enough to be one to keep an eye on, but he’s not necessarily a must bet on debut.

Last Updated: 7:52am AEDT on Wednesday, 17th May 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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