BlackBook - Wednesday, 17 August 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 17 August 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


CLICK HERE TO SEE OUR BLACKBOOK SUMMARY


CRANBOURNE - Race 3

OTHER

#6 DUBAI OAK went to the line under a hold alongside Chiaro Di Luna (since 8th in MDN on debut) in his Jul 15 return jump out, but his second jump out on Jul 22 was ordinary as he was ridden out and not really responding. The blinkers went on for his win in Heat 16 on Aug 8, an impressive bit of work as the 3yo colt led throughout and was a class above this field with his work past the line the most impressive part of the heat. He needs to improve on his first two career runs but these jump outs suggest he has, especially with the blinkers on, and connections will be hoping he can finally live up to his $160k price tag.


CANTERBURY - Race 1

OTHER

#8 SCIENTIST was a $600k colt from the 2021 MM Gold Coast Yearling Sales, being out of the star Group 1 winning mare Global Glamour of which Gai Waterhouse trained and even bought his half-sister by Justify for $900k at the more recent 2022 MM Gold Coast Yearling Sales, so the stable clearly have a huge opinion of the family. The 2yo colt won his first trial over 780m on Jul 8 by 9.33L in the second fastest of the morning, backing that up with a slick win by 3.23L in Trial 6 on Jul 29 over 1000m on the Heavy8 track at Gosford, clocking the third fastest time of the morning at 1:02.89s vs the days average of 1:03.08s. He’s done everything right at the trials and looks ready to head to the races now where we’d expect him to go well.


Les Bridge look to have a nice 2yo gelding on his hands. We mentioned #11 SPORTS LEGEND following his 4.99L win on Jun 14 where he clocked a slick 45.23s, noting he was a huge watch as a previous $200k Magic Millions Gold Coast Yearling purchase from 2021 and he certainly furthered his credentials here. He stepped up to 1050m in Heat 3 on Jun 28 and won by 1.95L, clocking the fastest time of the morning, an easy 0.7s quicker than Forzanini earlier in the day. He did it over 780m first and now he’s done it again over 1050m, so he’s ready to head to the races and make a big debut, expecting Kerrin McEvoy to stick.

 
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY

​Runners

Confidence - Comments

Cranbourne, Race 3

#6 DUBAI OAK (5) - B & JD Hayes

Low/Medium.

Mix bag for his jump outs - latest was good with the blinkers going on though, which he gets here on raceday for the first time. The heavy track is another query, which dims the confidence - going to have a small bet, but ½ staking at a hopefully a nice price (playing late).

Canterbury, Race 1

Leaving this race alone - hard to split our runners and didn't mind the work of NORTHERN BEACHES as well who is a $1M colt with J-Mac on board.

No bets - have SPORTS LEGEND on top though.

#8 SCIENTIST (11) - G Waterhouse & A Bott

Low/Medium.

Expecting a nice debut from this very well bred Zoustar colt, but he finds a nice maiden to kick off in and he's getting very short at ~$2.20 this morning. Expecting him to get out a bit in price so if you're playing, go late.

#11 SPORTS LEGEND (9) - L Bridge

​Low/Medium.

He clocked the meetings second fastest L600m and L400m after bombing the start on debut. Kerrin McEvoy jumps on board after his overseas trip having ridden him in his trials, which is a big positive.

BLACKBOOK WATCHLIST

The below aren't #BlackBook runners or recommended bets (unless stated), but are those we have notes on and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing (i.e. quaddie's etc).

Cranbourne, Race 4

#4 XTRA GEAR (2) - R Laming

​Latest trial was at Cranbourne on a Heavy10 track over the 1200m and she bolted in. We know she handles the wet (1:1-0-0 on Soft and 1:0-1-0 on Heavy) and a 1200m BM64 looks a lovely kick off point for her.

Last Updated: 8:12am on Wednesday, 17th August 2022.

 

Results (Aug '20 to Today):

'Highlighted' Runners:

676x runners | 203x winners (30%) & 213x placings (62%)

Ave Betfair SP | $8.27 WIN $2.31 PLC


'Other' Runners:

948x runners | 217x winners (23%) & 261x placings (50%)

Ave Betfair SP | $12.64 WIN $3.09 PLC

 
STAKING

How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.


Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).

If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, you will bet $10 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

842-8420575_electric-light-bulb-free-too

QUICK FIND TIP

use CTRL + F or CMD + F to quickly search and find your desired horse

TIP