BlackBook - Wednesday, 16 February 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 16 February 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


SANDOWN - Race 3

#2 OVER BOOST (5) - G Eurell

Holt is a speedy gelding but OVER BOOST did a really good job to hold him off as he won Heat 6 on Jan 17 in really slick time, the second fastest time of the morning. He’s an interesting runner having won a Warwick Farm trial back in 2020 before heading over to Hong Kong where he was really poor, his best finish being 10th in 6 starts. A big striding gelding, he’s one to keep an eye on back in Aus.


If we’re following British Columbia, then we should also follow the big striding gelding in OVER BOOST from Heat 12 on Feb 1. He finished 2nd in this heat over the 1000m, but they did clock the fastest 1000m heat of the morning and this certainly backs up his Jan 17 jump out where he won while clocking the second fastest 800m jump out of that morning. As mentioned previously, he’s ex-Hong Kong but was really poor over there and will be looking to make a much improved return to the races as he returns to Australia. He can win a country maiden.


OTHER

#5 HEAVENLY EAGLE had previously won a jump out on Jan 12 over 1000m ahead of Golden Shamrock (since 3.6L off a CL1) prior to this trial. Sticking to 1000m, the 3yo gelding had a lovely run during Heat 14 on Feb 7 as he settled midfield with cover before just cruising to the line under no pressure from Ben Allen in the saddle. He looked to have a fair bit left under the hood and looks to be one to keep an eye on for when he debuts.


SANDOWN - Race 5

OTHER

Despite technically finishing 4th, thought #2 RAPID ACHIEVER was super in Heat 3 on Feb 3. She jumped super, but was out wide so was heavily restrained back to last, forced to pick up again to stay in touch with the field before being slightly held up around the bend but getting a gap late and closing under no jockey pressure. She looks in really good order and being a 4yo mare with only the 3 starts from 1 preparation, she’s got plenty of improvement still to come this preparation. Hoping she goes through the grades and starts in a BM64 first up.


OTHER RUNNERS - NSW

Randwick, Race 2 - #4 STRAY (3)

Feb 7 (Randwick) - stable clearly had an opinion of this 3yo filly and despite being unplaced in 5x career starts, she’s got some really nice form - 2.9L behind Paulele on debut before a spell - 1.95L behin Profondo first up before being 3.1L off a Listed race and then competing in the Group 3 Gloaming and the Group 1 Flight Stakes - lovely trial return here, sitting midfield with cover before closing well under no jockey pressure to only just miss on the line - nice return.


OTHER RUNNERS - NZ

Tauranga, Race 1 - #6 KAI (12) Feb 1 (Cambridge Synthetic) - ran really quick time of 51.81s vs 54.62s (Average) & 54.69s (Next Quickest) - travelled 3-wide no cover throughout, came around them around the bend before going to the line under her own steam in a slick bit of work.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Sandown, Race 1 - OVER BOOST (+ CHAIN)

No surprise to see CHAIN bring in the best last start rating of -1.5 - he ran well behind Mianado who has since ran 4th in a CL1 at Pakenham. We were on him first up when he was very short and finished 2nd (with a 7L gap to 3rd) where that run rated +4.3, which is the worst rating of his four career runs. If he runs to any of his four career runs, he's going to be hard to beat.


OVER BOOST is a very interesting runner and quite keen for his debut here in Aus following some terrible runs in HK. He had a big long action, so may be suited to a bit further but the 1300m first up looks ideal. His jump outs have been nothing short of super, and it was encouraging to see British Columbia come out and run well (not well enough for us a return though lol).


HEAVENLY EAGLE certainly looks capable of running a nice run but not sure he quite has the class edge that the others possess, plus CHAIN has the race fitness and looks the main danger for us.


Keen that one of OVER BOOST or CHAIN wins, siding with CHAIN on top due to the race fitness and the winkers going on for the first time but we're going to play OVER BOOST and save on CHAIN. Look to make the most of the bonus back offers for the saver bet on CHAIN.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.


We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 2.50 units.


Sandown, Race 1

OVER BOOST ~ 1.80 units WIN @ $4.20 (TopSport)

CHAIN ~ 0.70 units WIN @ $3.60 (TAB)


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +5.99 units at Recommend Price | +43.27 units at Betfair SP

When you sign up, select 'JumpOuts' for how you Heard About them and "JUMPOUTS" in the Promo Code.


PURCHASE - JUSTIFY x NOW NOW FILLY

Some exciting news for us - we have purchase a % of this Justify filly from the Magic Millions 2022 sales. She was a $400k buy and will be trained by Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace while she is majority owned by Coolmore... so very exciting!


She is eligible for Coolmore's Ferrari bonus (read here) and is a half-sister to Group 2&3 winner and Group 1 runner-up in FIESTA, who also earnt over $1.5m in prize money. Here's hoping this filly is just as fast - she certainly has the looks!


We will be posting the trainer updates to our members as we receive them so that you get a taste of ownership without having to pay any of the purchase price or ongoing trainer fees - some extra excitement for our members for no cost. She'll head off to the breakers and hopefully she's gets to the race track as a 2YO! She is still at least 6 months away from even being eligible to race so stay tuned...


UPDATE (27 Jan, 2022): she is currently getting broken in at Coolmore's breaking-in program.


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