BlackBook - Wednesday, 15 December 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 15 December 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


SANDOWN - Race 1

OTHER

Two trial wins in a row now for #6 PERIBALDO, running over the top of All Too Tough to win Heat 5 on Dec 8 over 1100m with a nice gap to 3rd to back up his Nov 23 win where he had Montera covered. He was ridden out, but it was good to see him chase down the leader and really attack the line when asked for that effort, clocking nice time in the process. Having been a $130k purchase from the 2020 NZB Karaka sales, he can run well on debut.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Sandown, Race 1 - PERIBALDO

We thought LUCKY DECISION’s jump out on Nov 23 was super, but wanted to see another bit of work prior to making him a #BlackBook runner. He heads to the races instead off the back of that sole jump out and he looks like he can go well here. Query on fitness being first up at 1300m against a couple of horses who have some fitness but he does draw barrier 1 with Luck Nolen heading to Sandown for the two rides on the two Moody runners. He also brings in the best last start rating and the best peak rating at +0.9, resuming as a gelding here.


Ratings wise, the two race fit horses in MASTERFUL (+1.7) and ENDLESSLY (+2.9) are the only ones close in terms of last start ratings and they look the only other ones of the raced that look capable of winning this. MASTERFUL’s form behind Treporti reads well now.


PERIBALDO’s trials were good and he can run well here too. There should be no queries on his fitness having had three recent trials all over 1000m+.


In summary, this is a nice race between the top four in the market and really, any of them can win. It's a no bet race for us, but we're keen to watch and follow the form going forward.


Sandown, Race 2 - PORT LOUIS

He's ~$1.30 so not a betting proposition (in the early markets anyway) but he simply should just win this. This has to be the race he finally gets the maiden out of the way.


He drops back to Maiden grade and back from 1600m to 1400m after finishing 6th (by 3.5L) in the Group 2 Sandown Guineas. He's also Group 2 placed at 1400m in the past and could arguably be the best Maiden going around.


Ratings wise, his worst career run was his 6th place in the Group 1 JJ Atkins that rated +3.0. All of his other 6 career runs have rated +1.3 or better. To put that into perspective, the best peak rating from the other 11 runners in this field is +4.6. If he runs his worst race of his career and the rest of the field run their best race of their career, he still simply wins.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

No bets. Total outlay is 0.00 units.


Overall: +6.76 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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