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BlackBook - Wednesday, 14 June 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 14 June 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Sha Tin, Race 3

#5 FAST SERVE (3) - D Hall

BlackBook jump out comments:

This was impressive. The un-raced 2yo gelding FAST SERVE won Heat 16 on Jul 18 by 5.5L in the second fastest time of the morning, clocking 53.44s vs the days average of 54.57s across 16x trials over 850m. This trial was over very quickly, with the son of Swiss Ace bouncing out of the gates to lead and having superior speed throughout, opening up that huge gap in the straight with ease while under a hold from Tahlia Hope. He was 2nd in a previous Jul 7 jump out where it is very hard to make out how he went due to the fog, but it looks as though he was purchased from NZ following a Mar 22 trial over 800m where he also looked super. Very hard not to like this bit of work, it was super.


There was a lot of talk about Passive Aggressive’s win earlier in the day, who won by 4.5L in 59.48s, but we thought the win of the un-raced FAST SERVE was equally as impressive. This 3yo Swiss Ace gelding won Heat 22 on Aug 9 over the 990m in 59.47s, which is quicker (albeit only 0.01s) than Passive Aggressive. He was our TopSport Top Performer following a Jul 18 win over 900m where he also clocked slick time, the second fastest of the day. He’s Hong Kong owned, so we’d expect him to end up over there but he may look to race here first and we’d be very keen to follow him as he progresses through the grades. He looks very smart, his trials have been nothing short of super. If he debuts in a maiden, he wins.

Last Updated: 8:05am AEDT on Wednesday, 14th June 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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