BlackBook - Wednesday, 13 April 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 13 April 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


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GEELONG - Race 2

#5 SHINES (2) - M, W & J Hawkes

The 3yo Dream Ahead gelding in SHINES was super in Heat 4 on Apr 1. He jumped beautifully to push forward and take up a leading position, travelling under a strong hold throughout. His best work was past the line as he really went though it, matching motors with Stonefield who was ridden with more urgency late in the heat - he’s a 4yo gelding with 17x career starts including 2x this prep in Feb and Mar (so he had a fitness edge). Only his first jump out but he looks a talent.

SHINES is smart, as simple as that. After a super jump out on Apr 1 that really caught our eye, the 3yo Dream Ahead gelding led from start to finish in Heat 5 on Apr 8 and clocked a slick 49.10s, which was the third fastest time of the morning and above the days average of 49.91s and our overall average of 49.31s. This was against open grade horses as well, with the Group 1 placed Aramayo in 2nd place and they went just as well as each other. He was the only one in this heat without a career win, let along a career start but certainly don’t expect him to be a maiden for long. In fact, would be surprised if he gets beat on debut. He’s smart.

OTHER

#6 SONGAA got to the outside of the track and found clear air late before exploding to the led and record a comfortable 4L+ win in Heat 10 on Jan 5. He travelled a lot better than the rest of the field who were mostly all pushed out and not responded nearly as much. The 3yo colt’s previous two jump outs have been a little inconclusive, but this was a really nice bit of work so he’s certainly one to follow into his debut.


GEELONG - Race 5

OTHER

It was #1 ANGEL first, daylight second and then the rest of the field in Heat 10 on Apr 1, the 4yo import bolting in by over 10L in the second fastest time of the morning. His first jump out in Aus on Mar 4 and then his second on Mar 23 over the 1200m left a lot to be desired so the improvement here was surprising but encouraging.


GEELONG - Race 6

OTHER

#1 JUDESTAR (pink) was a slick winner of Heat 9 on Mar 28, cruising to the line over the top of a breakaway leader with a huge gap back to 3rd. The 5yo mare has a handy record for a 65-rated horse, with 10x starts for 2x wins and 4x placings. Look for her for a BM64 first up after another jump out.


OTHER RUNNERS - NSW

Hawkesbury, Race 1 | #5 IN SECRET (1) - James Cummings

Feb 28 (Warwick Farm (Synthetic)) - away slowly, was out the back throughout but showed an incredible turn of foot in the straight to make up 6L+ and finish only 0.42L off the winner, work past the line was super and if the trial was more than 740m would’ve won - had a bit on this field - $900k Magic Millions purchase in 2021 being by I Am Invincible and out of the talented mare Eloping ($1.2m in earnings) - hoping to see another jump out as a 740m synthetic trial is a bit iffy but still follow and look for J-Mac sticking on debut.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Geelong, Race 2 - SHINES

His jump outs speak for themselves really and we're very keen on this gelding - if he runs to his jump outs, then he'll just win this and then go onto better races. The 1100m with barrier 2 is a lovely kick off point.


SONGAA has had 8x jump outs now, 5x of them coming this prep with an 11-week let-up in between. He's jumped out well in some of his jump outs and then iffy in others, so it's hard to get a real gauge on him and was happy to risk him. His Jan 5 jump out was clearly his best, but his latest on Apr 4 was also respectful with a couple of '?' in between.


That leaves the raced horses and this race is very very winnable. The best last start rating of the race is from BARCLAYS BANK at +8.1 after just getting run down by Botany (who was worse than badly held up and still won) - the 3rd horse from the race has since ran 7th in a MDN. The next best is JUICE BOX with +12.5... meanwhile, the best peak rating is also BARCLAYS BANK at +3.3.


SHINES should just win this. SONGAA is the main danger, followed by BARCLAYS BANK and then we'd be surprised if anything else got close - would just be surprised if SHINES lost and very happy to be backing him.


Was hoping we could get $2+ in early markets but they were all over it, with TAB opening $1.75. We decided to wait in early markets and it's probably been a good decision with $0.09 of deductions. Feel as though he might get out and could start closer to the $2


Geelong, Race 3 - DUN WARRIOR

The form from that Sandown run has seen Bors (4th) since run a 0.1L 2nd in a 1600m MDN (while gapping 3rd by 3.25L) and Hollywood Park (5th) since run 3rd in a 1600m MDN while the last two across the line in Couldbefamous (7th) and Littlemissdoom (8th) have both ran 6th in MDN’s since. He beat home Bors and Hollywood Park by a good 1.5L+, which would’ve been a lot further had he of not been held up from the 500m to the 100m… he was one of the biggest moral beats we’ve seen and without a doubt should’ve won the race.


That run rated +3.0, which is the second best last start rating and the second best peak rating of the race. The best last start and peak rating comes from KUROLATION who ran +2.7 at Pakenham. After that, the next best is +5.7 and there is no doubt that DUN WARRIOR should've (and would've) rated higher if he got a clean run.


DUN WARRIOR should just win this, similar to SHINES above in Race 2 and it looks a nice little race-to-race double. KUROLATION looks the quinella horse.


2-LEG MULTI - SHINES + DUN WARRIOR

We're going to multi SHINES and DUN WARRIOR together as they're just a touch too short to be playing individually. We could have 3-unit plays on both runners @ $1.60 & $1.75, but we'd be risking 6 units for a 4-unit total profit, so instead we're going to have a single 3-unit high confidence play on the multi, of which we should get ~$3 and then we're risking 3-units for a 6-unit profit.


We're playing the "Best Tote + Start Price" on TopSport for this - see below.


Geelong, Race 6 - JUDESTAR

Might have a small spec here. She's only had the 1x jump out ahead of her return, so we have a slight query on how forward she is for this but she has won 1x from 3x attempts first up and it was a really nice jump out. Last preparation she didn't seem to come up, finishing 10th in a BM70 and 6th in a BM64 before being spelled, but the prep before she was in form as she won her first 2x runs before 2x 2nd's in BM70's a and then a 13th in the Country Mile at the Valley.


She's got nice PuntingForm ratings and this is only a small field in a lower BM64 grade than what she has been competing in. She didn't have the blinkers on in the jump out, which she has on here, which is another positive.


At $20+, can entertain a small spec on her.



BLACKBOOK NOTIFICATIONS

We'll be tweeting each and every time the BlackBook is posted with bets or finalised for the day from now on so no one misses an update and can make the most of early odds when we're playing - head to Twitter (click here) if you're not already following us.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 3.25 units.


2-LEG MULTI ~ 3.00 units @ 'Best Tote + Start Price' (TopSport)

Geelong, Race 2 - SHINES ~ 'Best Tote + Start Price' WIN (TopSport)

Geelong, Race 3 - DUN WARRIOR ~ 'Best Tote + Start Price' WIN (TopSport)


Geelong, Race 6

JUDESTAR ~ 0.25 units WIN @ $21.00 (Bet365) or $20.00 (TopSport)


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +11.01 units at Recommend Price | +44.53 units at Betfair SP

When you sign up, select 'JumpOuts' for how you Heard About them and "JUMPOUTS" in the Promo Code.



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