BlackBook - Wednesday, 12 October 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 12 October 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.
WARWICK FARM - Race 3
OTHER
Clocking the fastest 1030m time of the morning in Trial 4 on Sep 20 was the un-raced #15 RHETTARA with James McDonald on board, with the 3yo I Am Invincible filly sitting outside the leader and cruising to the line under no pressure. If asked for an effort, she looked as though she could’ve exploded away. She was very quietly ridden in a Sep 6 trial over 900m as well and will have a good base for her debut where she can go well.
TELEGRAM CHAT
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Runners | Confidence - Comments |
Warwick Farm, Race 3 | |
#15 RHETTARA (8) - J Cummings | Low. Not a race we're too keen to get involved in - think the stablemate in PEREILLE is going to be very hard to beat and we've been on him in both this starts. Happy to leave this race alone with no bets, but if you're playing, look to back PEREILLE and save on RHETTARA. |
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WACHLIST
Warwick Farm, Race 1 | Our numbers for this race are as follows: 1. HER EXCELLENCY 2. DIVINE GLORY *daylight* 3. MERCURY ROSE 4. no idea.... Expecting the top 2 to clear out the rest and at $3.70 and $1.50, it's hard to play. Going to have a $50 bet on Her Excellency for the bonus back promotions but very minimal confidence. |
Last Updated: 9:13am on Wednesday, 12th October 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
'Highlighted' Runners:
689x runners | 210x winners (30%) & 218x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.21 WIN $2.30 PLC
'Other' Runners:
1020x runners | 241x winners (24%) & 279x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.31 WIN $3.04 PLC
STAKING
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):
BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB
THE RACE CLUB
The Jump Outs x The Race Club
Just a quick FYI, we’re now going to be posting some tips on The Race Club through their app/website. It’s a good opportunity for us to work with Adam and the team to get our name out there a little more with the potential for more opportunities down the track to venture into, so we’re looking forward to it.
What we post on The Race Club will be sent to everyone first, so no one will be at a disadvantage.
I’m sure the main question will be, what’s difference between The Race Club and this service?
We will only be posting select tips on The Race Club, which will pretty much be the runners that are ‘High’ confidence only.
The runners that are ‘Medium’ confidence will very rarely (!) be posted on The Race Club and the runners that are ‘Low’ and ‘Low/Medium’ won’t be posted on The Race Club.
So for an average week, there will be ~15 BlackBook runners that we have, which everyone here will get but only 3-4 will be on The Race Club, so it’s a big difference. We’re just dipping our toe in the water, so to speak.
If you’re already signed up to The Race Club or want to sign up, please let us know.
Any questions or issues, just message/email us. Thanks all and looking forward to more winners!