BlackBook - Wednesday, 12 July 2023
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 12 July 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
SANDOWN - Race 1
OTHER
DOUBLE GLAZED threw the jockey in the first 5m of his debut race at Geelong last Friday, so it’s no surprise that the stewards sent him back to the jump outs and he certainly showed his hand as he stepped out over 800m in Heat 6 on Jul 3. He doesn’t have a stack of gate speed but he certainly had a stack of late speed as he flew home from the back to win. You don’t see many make this sort of ground in jump outs so he’s certainly one to monitor into technically his second up run but it’ll more be like his ‘debut’.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Runners | Confidence - Comments |
Sandown, Race 1 | ​ |
#4 DOUBLE GLAZED (4) - J Sandhu | Low/Medium. Beau Mertens has ridden SPRING EAGLE at all 3x of his starts but elects to stick with DOUBLE GLAZED here even after he threw him off in the first 5m of the race - certainly a positive push. As we highlighted, his JO since that forgettable debut was superb and on the back of that, happy to be with him here. Plenty of bonus back offers around too. |
Sandown, Race 2 | ​ |
#10 OH WONDERFUL WHY (6) - B Brisbourne | Low. ​We backed her on debut where she was held up and a horrible watch - her JO’s this time in were nothing really and hard to gauge with the first on a Heavy10 track and the other at Wangaratta. We were keen to be with her in a much easier Wagga maiden yesterday but despite this race being harder, we're getting a much bigger price and we can still bet. Backing her here - think she'll get out a bit in price too so worth going ½ fixed at $19 and ½ SP. |
Last Updated: 7:48am AEDT on Wednesday, 12th July 2023.
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STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):
BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB