Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 11 May 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
SANDOWN - Race 1
Two impressive jump out wins now for #3 RUSSIAN MINT. Racing.com have him finishing last in a Apr 19 synthetic jump out, but he’s actually the winner in the white silks as he doesn’t have the big baldy white face of the horse that finishes last. He was again an impressive winner of Heat 10 on Apr 26, showing a tremendous turn of foot over the concluding stages to win by a big margin. The 2yo Russian Revolution colt looks like he has some talent.
SANDOWN - Race 4
#8 BIFROST had the 1x start in NZ before coming over to Australia for a Guineas a preparation that saw him win well first up ahead of Holt (who then won a MDN and BM64 in next two starts) before failing in town. He then went back to NZ for two starts, both of which were disappointing. Now back in Australia, the 3yo gelding took out Heat 4 on May 2 in the fastest time of the morning as he travelled very wide throughout when sitting midfield before showing superior closing speed late when asked for a little effort. Hopefully they take him through the grades with their move to NZ as he certainly has the form to be competitive in a BM64 (BM58?) first up.
#9 BURUM went to the line with Bam’s On Fire and Frankie Pinot (won the Wangoom first up) in his first jump out on Apr 7 due to a break away leader in Moon And Back (who ran 6th first up in a HCP race). The roles were reversed in her second jump out in Heat 16 on Apr 21, with the 3yo filly being that break away leader where she recorded a massive win in the second fastest time of the morning. She hasn’t been seen since her 1.8L debut win at Mornington as a 2YO, but she looks to be in really good order ahead of her return.
We have been doing a ‘unit’ system over the past 8 or so months, which has been fun but challenging at the same time. Going forward, we will implementing a change to the way we deliver our BlackBook runners based on feedback and some advice on how others have delivered their information. In particular, we love the way Dan O’Sullivan presents his ‘top selections’ and ‘runners’ each meeting in an appeal/confidence format, which is a method we will be adopting from now on.
Results since August 2020:
Highlighted Runners: 660x runners | 198x winners (30%) & 208x placings (62%) @ Ave Betfair SP of $8.33 W & $2.31 P Other Runners: 759x runners | 168x winners (22%) & 208x placings (50%) @ Ave Betfair SP of $12.98 W & $3.09 P.
We will continue to list all of our BlackBook runners with our original BlackBook comments from our Weekly Reviews (as above), but instead of “Our Thoughts/Bets”, we will now instead detail our confidence level for the runner in that particular race (as below). This will be known as the 'BlackBook Summary'. As our results show, it is better to focus on the 'Highlighted Runners' as these have a better strike rate than the 'Other Runners'
We will also start to include more detailed NSW analysis in our Weekly Reviews along with some NZ runners that will then start to feature in our BlackBook.
Confidence levels will be as follows:
Low = not keen to bet.
Low/Medium = can win but not confident - small bet (if any at all).
Medium = one of the main winning chances - can bet.
High = very good winning chance - keen to have a bet.
Special = very keen, should be winning.
Any questions / feedback / issues, please send us a message on Twitter or email us. Appreciate it.
Confidence - Comments
Sandown, Race 1
#3 Russian Mint (2) - Mick Price & Michael Kent Jnr
Medium - expect either him or Yaltara to win.
Sandown, Race 4
#8 Bifrost (12) - Emma-Lee & David Browne
Low - poor barrier.
#9 Burum (15) - Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace
Low/Medium - but not betting, poor barrier.
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