BlackBook - Wednesday, 11 January 2023
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 11 January 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
WARWICK FARM - Race 1
OTHER
#3 THE ENGLISHMAN ran 2nd to Zou Tiger on debut over 1300m, with that runner going on to finish 3rd in the Group 1 Golden Rose, so the form certainly stacks up. He was spelled following this run though, given more time and returning on Dec 13 over 1050m where he went forward and sat behind the leader on the fence, peeling out at the top of the straight and closing well late to finish 2nd. He stuck at 1030m in Trial 3 on Dec 29, but took a different approach, settling a clear last and being asked to close off, which he did. He clearly needs some distance being by So You Think and a younger half-brother to The Irishman (Group 3 placed over 1600m) and Gunstock (who favourite in the Victorian Derby), but he’s been good at the trials and is one to follow first up and more likely deeper into his prep.
SANDOWN - Race 3
OTHER
#2 EBONY KING was never going to beat Inundation in a Dec 12 jump out where he was 3rd with 2nd being Lake Tai (since 2nd BM58) while finishing ahead of Tatusro (since 4th in a 0-58), Playoffs and Cantina (since 5th in a BM64). He then stepped out again over 800m in Heat 7 on Dec 28 and made good ground late to finish 2nd to Designer Dreamer in a nice bit of work. He’s a 4yo now with the 7-starts for only 3x placings, but he’s now been gelded and that might finally be the making of him having been a $65k buy back in 2020 as a colt. Let’s keep an eye on where he goes first up this prep.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Runners | Confidence - Comments |
Warwick Farm, Race 1 | |
#3 THE ENGLISHMAN (8) - P & P Snowden | Low/Medium. The scratching of Step Aside leaves this race open for our gelding in a big way, it is a very winnable race first up for him. He's got very good debut form, has been given more time and his JO's have been slick, so with Kerrin McEvoy sticking over 1400m first up, he is the clear one to beat and at $3+, we can bet. |
Sandown, Race 3 | |
#2 EBONY KING (6) - G Begg | Low/Medium. The 1200m is a touch short of his best distance, so he'll certainly improve from the run, but loved the speed he's shown in the 2x 800m JO's and the fact he is gelded is a huge positive into his third career prep. He's drawn well with barrier 6 and should get a nice run in a race that lacks a standout. If you didn't get the $17 yesterday, he's still a bet at the $15+ this morning. |
Last Updated: 7:40am (QLD) on Wednesday, 11th January 2023.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 708x runners | 218x winners (31%) & 227x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.06 WIN $2.28 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1129x runners | 277x winners (25%) & 312x placings (52%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.10 WIN $2.99 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 47x runners | 28x wins (60%) & 13x placings (87%)
Medium Confidence: 94x runners | 39x wins (41%) & 28x placings (71%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 88x runners | 19x wins (22%) & 27x placings (52%)
Low Confidence: 18x runners | 4x wins (22%) & 5x placings (50%)
STAKING
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):
BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB