BlackBook - Wednesday, 10 November 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 10 November 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


BENDIGO - Race 1

OTHER

#3 SAINT LOFT won as well as you could want for a first jump out back, taking out Heat 5 on Oct 18 but a few lengths but it was in slowish overall time. The 3yo gelding had a pair of jump outs in June/July but didn’t make it to the races, given more time where he returned in this jump out to win impressively. He’s a son of Written Tycoon that was a $180k purchase at the 2020 Magic Millions Gold Coast sale, so one to keep an eye on for his next jump out prior to debuting.


BENDIGO - Race 3

OTHER

Now named, #2 EXTREME EMOTION put in another impressive performance following her previous jump outs on Jul 6, Jul 23 and Oct 12 under her breeding Extreme Choice x Aura D’Oro. She finished 5th in Heat 7 on Oct 19 over the 1000m, but she was never let out from a strong hold at any stage as the rest of those around her were given a niggle. She jumped beautifully, easily could’ve led but was restrained by the jockey to take a sit and just cruised throughout. She looked to be a really nice mover and was only jogging. A $150k purchase, she looks very talented and very keen to follow her into her debut.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Bendigo, Race 1 - SAINT LOFT

Scratched from a Pakenham maiden on Friday, electing to run here but has drawn barrier 11 of 11. He's only had the one jump out this prep but it was a really nice one, with the 3rd horse from that jump out since running 5th by 3.2L on debut. The time was slowish for the day, but he did it in style.


VIVIANE comes from a very good form race behind Argentia that we have been referencing from previous tips in SEONEE and SISTINE EXPLORER. She had two runs following that run though, finishing behind Jigsaw and Libiamo at Caulfield in those. She brings in the clear best benchmark ratings and if she runs to any of those three runs, she will be very hard to beat here. Jump Outs have been okay ahead of her return too.


ZEDEMSKI has had a few jump outs now and debuts at the home track, ridden out in his latest to win by a nice margin. THE SUPERINTENDENT has jumped out okay but not sure we could back him with confidence - he's probably better as a form reference for EXTREME STEP tomorrow.


We're going to be with SAINT LOFT but only for a low confidence play due to him only having the one jump out this prep prior to his debut, so we have a query on the race fitness and race experience. Only 2-place dividend so no point playing E/W, we'll have a little on him for the win. Rain no issue, handled the wet in the jump outs fine.


Bendigo, Race 3 - EXTREME EMOTION

She was heavily backed on debut and we were keen on her, jumping a $2.70 fav but only managing to run 3rd by 2.5L. She steps up from 1100m to 1300m here and sticks at the home track of Bendigo. Also worth noting that this is a Fillies & Mares maiden, whereas her debut run was against the boys as well, so she might be better suited against her own sex. She was picking up again late and made good ground past the line, so think the 1300m suits.


Ratings wise, she brings in the third best last start benchmark rating at +7.4, which is a little behind PRESS FOR VICTORY's debut +1.3 when 3rd with 2nd (Wanaroo) since winning a MDN by 3.8L.


Mindful of LUNA CAT who was very disappointing first up on a very wet track (that was later abandoned) - we're going to get a wet track again though.

We liked EXTREME EMOTION way too much on debut to not be following her again second up with some more things in her favour. We had 2 units on her on debut so hopefully she can make up for that with a win here. The worry is the rain this morning, but she did jump out well on rain affected tracks (here at Bendigo) prior to the debut.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 2.00 units.


Bendigo, Race 1

SAINT LOFT ~ 0.50 units WIN @ $9.00 (TopSport at 8:54am)


Bendigo, Race 3

EXTREME EMOTION ~ 2.00 units WIN @ $2.80 (TopSport at 8:54am)


Overall: +5.13 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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