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BlackBook - Wednesday, 1 March 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 1 March 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


SANDOWN - Race 2

OTHER

Have liked the way #5 MAGARTEN has returned following a disappointing debut prep that saw him have the two runs for no placings when running behind Kaygeebee on debut and The Deputy second up at Sandown. He was quietly ridden in a 900m jump out on Jan 25 where he led in the early stages but was ridden with no urgency to the line but really going on with it past the line. Craig Williams gave him a bit more of a hit out in Heat 14 on Feb 6, sitting off the speed with cover before peeling to the middle of the track and asked to extend late, attacking the line strongly to win ahead of Muramasa and Le Ferrari who were also ridden out. It’s no secret that Jerome Hunter is flying and this looks like another gelding he has that can win first up.

A third jump out now for #5 MAGARTEN and it was much of the same, winning Heat 4 on Feb 15 but although against 2yo’s, he travelled nicely in behind the speed before he got a gap along the fence and extended nicely to and through the line over the 900m. We mentioned him following a Feb 6 official trial over 990m when he won ahead of Muramasa and also noted his quiet Jan 25 jump out when 2nd to Overhymn (ran 3rd first up), all of which were nice bits of work and he’s certainly had a nice turn of foot on show in all of his jump outs. His form isn’t great and he did start $19 and $31 in his only two career starts, so we might get a nice price first up but regardless, we’re keen to follow him in.

As we mentioned after #7 VALSPARs jump out on Feb 10, we can probably ignore his debut run as a 2yo colt in the Nursery at Randwick and also forgive his only run last prep as a gelding on a Heavy9 track at Rosehill - he was immediately spelled following both of these runs. He stepped out again in Heat 10 on Feb 17, ridden out late by D Oliver as he really attacked the line. He can go well first up this prep on a good track.

Keeping a close eye on #8 VANBRUGH CASTLE who may be resuming gelded now after a let up. He closed nicely in a Feb 2 jump out into 3rd place and backed that up with a nice win in Heat 7 on Feb 21 over the 1000m. He’s had the five starts this prep and has been solid in all the runs, beaten only 1.4L, 1.8L and 1.2L in his last three. He’s looks like a nice moving gelding that has a maiden win in him over 1400m/1600m, especially if he’s been gelded so that’s the key gear change we’re looking for.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Sandown, Race 2

We're going to back MAGARTEN ($4.60+) and VALSPAR ($9+) to collect the 4% (4 units) each and then save on VANBRUGH CASTLE ($12) to breakeven.


Total outlay is ~1.43u ($143 for a $400 collect) in total & we cover all bases.


#5 MAGARTEN (9) - J Hunter

Low/Medium.

Thought this geldings jump outs have been slick and he's had the 3x of them, so he should be forward enough now third up and he looks a real line finder.

Unsure of where exactly he gets to from barrier 9 of 11 but think he's worth a bet at ~$4.60 as he's a definite winning chance.

#7 VALSPAR (3) - M, W & J Hawkes

Low/Medium.

His Flemington jump outs have been nice and D Oliver sticks here first up where he's also drawn really nicely with barrier 3.

His jump outs suggest he's come back nicely as a 3yo and it's now his third prep (second as a gelding). He's a winning chance.

#8 VANBRUGH CASTLE (7) - B Stanley

Low.

He likely needs further so that's the query, but he's got enough race experience and solid form on the board so on the back of his latest JO, he can run well but think he might just meet a couple sharper here.


He's the saver bet - don't want to lose if he wins.

Last Updated: 8:02am AEDT on Wednesday, 1st March 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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