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BlackBook - Wednesday, 1 February 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Wednesday, 1 February 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


WARRNAMBOOL - Race 2

OTHER

#10 QUEEN AIR was 3rd in the Group 1 Oaks at only her fourth career start, where she was then given a let up, returning to finish 2nd right alongside the talented In The Boat in Heat 5 on Jan 18 over the 1000m. Looking back at her debut, she was slow away and went back to a clear last (some 3L off the second last horse) where she crossed to the fence and as a result was held up rounding the bend but once she finally got out, she closed really well to finish only 1.8L off the winner. She then went on to run 4th in 2x Group 2’s and then 3rd in a Group 1, so she’s got some really good form and she still is a maiden. This is only her first jump out back, so expect her to have another but a really encouraging return for a talented 3yo filly.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Warrnambool, Race 2

#10 QUEEN AIR (4) - L Smith

High.

Loved her jump out and loved her track work alongside In The Boat at Warrnambool last week even more (watch here).

Expecting her to be awfully hard to beat here at the home track and then she'll be going onto a lot better races than mid-week maidens.

The query is that she'll get out over further, but 1300m looks nice for a filly with this sort of class, especially in a maiden and she really shouldn't be losing this after the scratchings of her only real danger in Credible Analyses.


Very keen to back her.

Happy to take the $1.80/$1.85 available and we can use Sportsbet's bonus back promo and TAB's bonus stake promo (which is a free $50 bonus bet if she wins) as well.

Last Updated: 7:14am AEDT on Wednesday, 1st February 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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