Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 9 August 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
BALLARAT - Race 3
Massive win by #1 SHOURI LAD, taking out Heat 8 on Aug 2 with the 4yo gelding leading from start to finish as he clocked the fastest 850m time of the morning in the process at 50.86s (vs the days average of 51.83s). He was poor in his debut preparation, his best finish being a 5th when beaten by 2.7L second up. We’ll look for another jump out prior to resuming, but this was an encouraging improvement and he’ll likely be a big price that we can spec.
HAWKESBURY - Race 2
If you keep an eye on past the line in Trial 4 on Jul 26, #10 LEFT REELING is in front by lengths and really going through the line, which was similar to his first trial on Jul 8 over 780m where he also was in front past the line. Last preparation he was 2nd in his first 3x runs before finishing 4.75L off Never Been Kissed in the Group 1 Flight Stakes. If she heads to a maiden first up this prep, she’s a huge watch and should go well.
HAWKESBURY - Race 3
#1 DIAMOND FLARE is just taking the piss at the trials now. He’s now had 6x trials for 5x wins and a 2nd this preparation, his latest a win in Trial 4 on Jul 26 over 1080m on the Synthetic at Randwick in the clear fastest time of the morning as he clocked 1:04.04s, which was 1.16s quicker than the next quickest and well above our average of 1:04.57s. He was 4.71L off In The Congo on debut back in May 2021, which is over a year ago now, but we have seen 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 7th and 9th from that race all win in either of their next two starts. He’s got poor race day manners, hence the trials, so he’ll be one to monitor in the yard to see if he’s behaving but there is no doubt that connections will be hoping he can bring his trial form to the races.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Not an overly confident day - LEFT REELING is too short to back at ~$1.50 and then our other two runners have some queries. We'll be backing SHOURI LAD and DIAMOND FLARE, but ½ staking both with those queries - don't want to lose what we won last week on runners that we aren't overly confident on.
Confidence - Comments
Ballarat, Race 3
#1 SHOURI LAD (10) - R Hickmott
Expected a bigger price than the ~$3.50 available this morning, but that JO was absolutely super and this is a very (!) winnable race - an obvious query on how forward he is having only had the 1x JO and he's drawn poorly with barrier 10 of 10. Having a bet, but going to ½ stake and play at the SP.
Hawkesbury, Race 2
#10 LEFT REELING (2) - J Sargent
She should be running well here, both form and trial wise but that's more than reflected in her price at ~$1.50 with J-Mac on. Won't be playing at that price, way too short.
Hawkesbury, Race 3
#1 DIAMOND FLARE (5) - M Newnham
Has been trialling the house down, the latest two over 1080m so he should be very forward here first up over the 1100m. Will be very interesting to see if he can replicate those trials at the race track. Happy to have a small bet to find out (½ stake) - he was getting out in price but has come back in a little, but going to play SP.
Last Updated: 8:38am on Tuesday, 9th August 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
670x runners | 202x winners (30%) & 211x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.27 WIN $2.30 PLC
935x runners | 211x winners (23%) & 257x placings (50%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.75 WIN $3.10 PLC
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $10 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):