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BlackBook - Tuesday, 7 March 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 7 March 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


BALLARAT - Race 1

OTHER

#11 LUNAR MODULE was given the typical Archie Alexander set up, a quiet first jump out being on Feb 9 before a more serious second jump out in Heat 3 on Feb 23 where the 3yo filly where she went forward to lead before being put under pressure late where she responded and held off the challenging Messignadi, a 70-rated 4yo mare. The time was about average for the day but liked her work here.


Similar to her stable mate, #12 MISS GALORE also took nice improvement from her Sep 26 jump out into her win in Heat 12 on Oct 3 over the 1000m. She was quietly ridden in her first jump out in behind the pace as she went to the line untested, but took a different approach in this heat as she went forward to lead and went to the line strongly. Those around her were fully ridden out and pushed while she just went through the motions, she had a bit of this field. She was purchased from NZ following a smart May 25 win and looks a talented Per Incanto filly that should break her maiden early in her career.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Ballarat, Race 1

#11 LUNAR MODULE (5) - A Alexander

Low/Medium.

Think she goes forward from barrier 5, similar to her jump outs and as a result will be in the finish and certainly one of the winning hopes.


Prefer to be with our other filly here though and think she's the one worth a saver.

#12 MISS GALORE (9) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

Medium.

We didn't put her in the BlackBook this prep but looking back, think she's come back in good order.

That Oct 3 jump out was ahead of Holymanz... who has certainly franked the form now. She was spelled instead, returning to finish 2nd in a Feb 6 jump out behind Hans Albert (who won first up) and then 2nd on Feb 23 to Frankie Pinot, so some really nice form all around her.


She's the one to beat here for us so we're happy to bet and save on Lunar Module who looks the main danger.

Last Updated: 7:54am AEDT on Tuesday, 7th March 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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