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BlackBook - Tuesday, 7 February 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 7 February 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Kilmore, Race 3

#1 ALL SASSED UP (1) - M Price & M Kent Jnr

BlackBook jump out comments:

Can’t imagine ALL SASSED UP will be a maiden for too much longer. She had the two starts as a 2yo where she was 2nd on debut to Twin Stars (who then was 3.2L off the Group 1 JJ Atkins) before then running 3rd in a LR race at Moonee Valley behind Crosswinds and Nanagui, both of which is nice form now. She’s been given more time, returning as a 3yo now in a Dec 19 jump out before a super bit of work in Heat 8 on Dec 28 where she sat on speed but did it at both ends, closing super and doing her best work late. She moves well and based on her form, she should go very well first up this prep.


No bet - she probably goes straight to the front from barrier 1 and bolts in, but she's well found and petrified of TANTO who can run well first up, not to mention SQUAW (below). She's a no bet at the price, just don't want to outlay that sort of $ for a return so she can win without us.

Kilmore, Race 3

#14 SQUAW (5) - B Donat

BlackBook jump out comments:

Two jump out wins for SQUAW, the first on Jan 20 and again in Heat 8 on Feb 2 where she went straight to the front over the 1000m and didn’t look like losing. Ignore her debut run on a Heavy(10) track as the meeting was abandoned shortly after her run so it’s certainly encouraging to see her winning these really well. She’ll likely be a big price on debut so we’ll keep a close eye on where she ends up.


No bet - as per above, don't think she beats ALL SASSED UP or TANTO, but she's a sneaky E/W chance. If she was in another race without those standouts we'd be betting but hard to recommend a bet here.

Last Updated: 8:15am AEDT on Tuesday, 7th February 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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