BlackBook - Tuesday, 6 September 2022
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 6 September 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.
We've started up a Telegram Channel (for Updates) and Group (for Chat) so that we can send notifications and early updates etc. plus also just have some general racing banter and chat in the group. You don't have to join, but we would recommend it...!!
Follow the steps below:
1. Download Telegram on your device using the following link: https://telegram.org
2. Join the "BlackBook Updates" channel using the following link: https://t.me/+4gAUzhHXzrU4OTQ1
3. Join the "BlackBook Chat" group using the following link: https://t.me/+jdE9tx0l-NljM2I9
MOE - Race 3
#10 BONHEUR is a nice filly. A $975k Magic Millions buy back in 2021, the I Am Invincible filly went stride for stride with previous winner Amenable in Heat 14 on Aug 22 in a lovely jump out performance. She jumped cleanly, went forward to sit outside the leader and cruised to the line untouched throughout, given a really easy time of the 1000m. She had a previous 800m official trial on Aug 9 when officially finishing 7th of 9 but she went a lot better than that, cruising to the line after coming around the field and doing her best work late. The stable clearly have an opinion of her from her first three career runs, including a 1.9L 5th in the Group 2 Blue Diamond prelude before starting $5.50 in the Group 2 Sire Produce Stakes. A filly to monitor upon resumption, hopefully heading to a maiden first up before going onto better things.
MOE - Race 4
#6 STORMBOLT (9) - C Alderson
We didn’t mention STORMBOLT after his Jul 25 jump out but it was a super bit of work - he missed the kick by a considerable margin but was still able to close super down the middle of the track to finish 2nd alongside Black Ivory and behind G’day Gorgeous (since 3rd in MDN on debut). His work in Heat 7 on Aug 9 was even better though, leaving the gates fine to get a lovely sit behind debut Flemington winner Get In The Spirit, as he tracked her every move before peeling off his back at the top of straight and going past him with ease but he was nabbed late by the undefeated Zamborghini. It looks as though Cindy Alderson has a talented Foxwedge gelding here.
MOE - Race 5
#3 GULF OF GUINEA is a bit of a funny one as we have actually bought into him since his latest jump out at Flemington on Aug 8 where he was mentioned as an ‘Other Runner’. He won that day in the fastest time of the morning in a nice bit of work, backing up a solid Jul 29 jump out alongside Bors (since 2nd at Sandown in a BM64 on Wednesday). He was due to run at Cranbourne last Wednesday but was scratched due to the wet tracks, so we sent him back to the jump outs where he trotted in over 900m in Heat 10 on Aug 22, dictating terms from the front and we now know he handles the wet. He heads to Moe on Sep 6 - as a genuine BlackBook runner, he should run very well but then also as a owner, very keen that he shouldn’t be a maiden for much longer (which is why we bought into him).
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
In terms of ranking our three runners (in order) --> BONHEUR (best bet) - GULF OF GUINEA - STORMBOLT.
Confidence - Comments
Moe, Race 3
#10 BONHEUR (9) - T Busuttin & N Young
Her latest trial saw her finish alongside Amenable, who ran 4th at Moonee Valley on Saturday and should've finished a lot closer - that's more than good enough form for a Moe maiden and post scratchings, this is now her race to lose. Her previous form as a 2YO is far superior to anything in this race too. She'll be very hard to beat - ~$2 looks about fair, but we'll be playing late to try and sneak a better price.
Moe, Race 4
#6 STORMBOLT (8) - C Alderson
This looks a 2-horse race between this gelding and Just A Theory. Stormbolt was a touch unlucky on debut when trapped wide, but he had his chance late and just couldn't get there - in saying that, he looked to only get going the final ~200m so the step up to 1200m suits. Jye McNeil sticks and we can't sack a Highlight Runner after only 1x run, so we're with him again today here - playing late as he may get out a touch.
Moe, Race 5
#3 GULF OF GUINEA (11) - B & JD Hayes
Certainly a bit of bias here now as an owner (we'll send the voice report in Telegram), but we only bought into him post JO's as we thought he would be able to knock off pretty much any maiden. Barrier is a bit sticky, but if he can get a nice spot midfield and not be too wide, we expect him to be running very very well. He is VOBIS nominated, so we've been targeting this race for that extra $20k bonus. Keen to see him here - he's the one to beat for us. He might get out late, thought ~$3.50 was about the mark in this race.
Last Updated: 8:05am on Tuesday, 6th September 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
680x runners | 204x winners (30%) & 215x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.26 WIN $2.31 PLC
973x runners | 224x winners (23%) & 268x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.51 WIN $3.07 PLC
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):