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BlackBook - Tuesday, 6 June 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 6 June 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


SEYMOUR - Race 1

OTHER

Unsure why DIVAZOU hasn’t got to the races yet considering he’s now had 7x jump outs across 3-4 different preps and even more so, won his last 5x jump outs so not sure he can do much else. He bolted in Heat 2 on Apr 28 at Seymour in the fastest time of the morning over the 800m as he led throughout and then put a space on them as he was put under pressure late, albeit not beating anything of quality. A $130k purchase back in 2021, it was only his first jump out this prep so likely has another before debuting but as mentioned, he can’t do much more ahead of his debut (if it ever comes).


SEYMOUR - Race 2

OTHER

ROCK THE JOINT was an impressive winner of Heat 18 on May 16 and did everything that was asked of him late, extending away once he was put under pressure from Declan Bates. The 4yo gelding was drawn wide here but had some nice early speed to take a prominent forward position, albeit wide, holding that to the line as he won nicely ahead of dual winners in Entremet and Birdies Galore. He didn’t break the clock here but couldn’t have done much more from a visual perspective.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Seymour, Race 1

#1 DIVAZOU (6) - V Nolen

Medium.

This race looks to set up a lot better for this colt as opposed to his debut over 1200m where he burnt straight to the front from barrier 11 of 12 and as a result, was left very vulnerable late.

He drops back to 1100m here (big tick) and has drawn barrier 6 of 11 so he should be able to save some petrol tickets in getting to the front and the drop back in distance suits big time as well.


Expecting him to run super and be hard to beat here.


With the Heavy track, we'll lower our stake to a ½ collect.

Seymour, Race 2

#9 ROCK THE JOINT (4) - A Noblet

Low/Medium.

Visually, he looked like quite smart in his latest trial win and really caught the eye, hence the opening price here on debut.

He looks to have found a winnable race on debut as well and can't see why he wouldn't be running very well if he brings his track work to the races.


Mere Morsel has looked solid at the JO's but think he needs further and is drawn ordinary. Xavier only fair at JO's and latest JO went to line with Caledonian King (since 7th) and Champagne Sabre (since 9th at $91). The race then drops away with 10/20+ start maidens.


Price was the issue earlier as he was ~$2.50 but we can now get ~$3, which we're happy to bet.

His trial on Heavy was good so he should handle it, but it's a query so we'll lower our stake to a ½ collect.

Last Updated: 9:40am AEDT on Tuesday, 6th June 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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