Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 4 October 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.
MURTOA - Race 2
#2 ANGELONE has to be one to follow into his debut. He’s a 5yo gelding for Kylie Vella having his second jump out this preparation, the first was on Sep 12 where he was very hard held throughout with no where to go, finishing 5th. The latest in Heat 2 on Sep 26 saw him given a much more of a hit out, bouncing to the front in the early stages before then opening up a big margin in the straight when asked for an effort, winning comfortably. He’ll pop up in a country maiden and is one we can monitor.
1. Download Telegram on your device using the following link: https://telegram.org
2. Join the "BlackBook Updates" channel using the following link: https://t.me/+4gAUzhHXzrU4OTQ1
3. Join the "BlackBook Chat" group using the following link: https://t.me/+jdE9tx0l-NljM2I9
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Mildura, Race 1
#2 ANGELONE (8) - K Vella
This geldings jump outs were super and he can certainly make a good debut here in a race that looks winnable on paper.
The current favourite in All Clubs comes over from SA after starting $10, $21 and $26 in three starts this prep. Oh Canada looks the main danger with the blinkers going on having had a nice mid-prep JO but she will have to improve.
Happy to be with him in this race, especially at $4+ which looks a good enough price. He's a good winning chance.
Last Updated: 8:24am on Tuesday, 4th October 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
687x runners | 208x winners (30%) & 218x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.23 WIN $2.30 PLC
1011x runners | 237x winners (23%) & 277x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.37 WIN $3.05 PLC
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):