BlackBook - Tuesday, 31 January 2023
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 31 January 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
STONY CREEK - Race 3
#10 SNOW FALCON was a nice winner of a Jan 10 jump out and backed that up with her second jump out, going straight to the front in Heat 4 on Jan 19 and bolting in by an easy 4L in the clear fastest 900m time of the morning, nearly ~2s quicker than the other two 900m heats on the day. As mentioned after her last jump out, she has had excuses in both career starts being shine sore and lame despite startegin $3.70 and $5, but she looks to be back in really good order so keeping a close eye on this daughter of Lonhro first up.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Stony Creek, Race 3
#10 SNOW FALCON (4) - P Stokes
Drawn beautifully to make the most of her early speed and expecting her to go forward and be hard to catch, especially with only 54.5kg after the claim.
Her JO's were super and she has a nice SP profile from her first two career runs where she had issues. She beat He's Handsome in that Jan 10 JO, who won on Sunday at Geelong.
A few scratchings gives us deductions, which is a pain in the ass, but this is her race to lose.
The field has dropped away a bit. Rich Glow & City Hustler both need to improve a bit from their debut's to go well here. Sepolno was solid at JO's without being anything special and the rest are first up without also being anything special at the JO's.
Not sure where she gets to in price so think we play ½ now at the $2.15/$2.20 and the other ½ on SP to be safe.
Last Updated: 8:19am AEDT on Tuesday, 31st January 2023.
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):