BlackBook - Tuesday, 30 November 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 30 November 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


ARARAT - Race 1

OTHER

Beaten by a combined 1.3L in three career starts (when all 2nd), #5 KASAMI returned with a nice jump out in Heat 4 on Oct 25. She travelled on speed under a hold, cruising to the line under her own steam and holding her own throughout along the inside. She has good enough form to be very competitive first, having beat home The Garden first up last preparation and a bunch of other subsequent winners. One to follow.


ARARAT - Race 2

OTHER

Not sure what to make of #3 FREEDOM ESCAPE. His first jump out was only fair when beaten a long way, but his jump out win in Heat 3 on Nov 9 was in the fastest time of the morning and he held off previous maiden winner Longtimedreaming. He’s going to be one to keep in mind on debut.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Ararat, Race 1 - KASAMI

Three starts for three 2nd's doesn't give us a lot of confidence, especially when she's sub-$3 and not even the favourite. Her three runs have rated +8.8, +4.9 and +10.9, which would all be competitive here with MAGGIE ROCKS bringing in the best last start rating at +7.6 and LILY ALLEZ the second best at +8.4.


Barrier 8 of 9 isn't an ideal draw and she's had another two jump outs since we blackbooked her, and they weren't really the pieces of work that we'd want to see to back her with confidence.


No bet race. LILY ALLEZ looks the one to beat and not enough confidence to be playing KASAMI against her at the price.


Ararat, Race 2 - FREEDOM ESCAPE

He's had another jump out since on Nov 23 where the blinkers went on but not entirely sure he showed much improvement and was probably only okay at best.

This isn't a tough maiden to debut in but we probably would've preferred to see a bit more in that latest jump out and as a result, we're happy to let him go. Especially at the price, no value at the $4 available.


No bets.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

No bets. Total outlay is 0.00 units.


Overall: +11.46 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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