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BlackBook - Tuesday, 30 May 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 30 May 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting / playing are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting / playing are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


HAMILTON - Race 8

OTHER

JAY GATSBY was superb in Heat 6 on May 22. The 5yo gelding sat behind the leaders before getting a gap along the rail and exploding to the front to win very comfortably in nice time for the 1000m. He had race fitness having been coming off a 3-week freshen up following two only fair runs but look for him third up and peaking on the back of this.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Hamilton, Race 8

#1 JAY GATSBY (3) - T Dabernig

Low/Medium.

The drop back to BM64 suits, as does the step up 1400m. His jump out in between runs was super and love that he gets the blinkers on here for the first time.


Ryan Houston takes 3kg off his back to bring him down to 58.5kg and he's drawn beautifully with barrier 3. He handles the Heavy too with 5x placings from 8x starts on it (so win though but he handles it).


He can run a nice race here and was a good price yesterday at $10+ when we posted - that's now $7.50 post-deductions as he's into ~$5 this morning, so we've locked in a nice price and no need to re-back.

If you're not on, would wait and look to play late. If he starts sub-$5, play for a ½ stake.

Last Updated: 7:58am AEDT on Tuesday, 30th May 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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