BlackBook - Tuesday, 3 January 2023
Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 3 January 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
STONY CREEK - Race 3
We were on #3 MOURN MAID on debut where she jumped a $3.30 SP favourite but finished a distant 8th after leading, although pulling up lame in the right hindleg, so she had excuses. Given a freshen up to recover, she returned over 1000m in Heat 2 on Dec 27 where she again led, was put under pressure late but held up all challenges to win. Slightly worried about her just leading and that’s why she’s winning jump outs, but she’s one to keep an eye on second up as she did have that market support on debut too.
1. Download Telegram on your device using the following link: https://telegram.org
2. Join the "BlackBook Updates" channel using the following link: https://t.me/+4gAUzhHXzrU4OTQ1
3. If you want to be apart of the chat with everyone, join our "BlackBook Chat" group using the following link: https://t.me/+jdE9tx0l-NljM2I9
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Stony Creek, Race 3
#3 MOURN MAID (5) - S Stockdale
We were on her on debut where she started favourite, led but faded - she did pull up lame that day though so a few excuses.
She had only the 1x JO into that first up run so will take plenty of improvement and she was given a really solid hit over 1000m in between the runs, which should have her ready to go here.
Barrier 5 and with the 4kg claiming Tom Prebble, she'll go forward and be the one to catch so we're happy to have a bet and see how she goes - she's one of the winning chances.
Playing ½ now at $6 and the other ½ at the SP.
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST
Stony Creek, Race 2
#10 STAR MAGIC (3) - P Moody
BlackBook jump out comments:
Lovely win by STAR MAGIC in Heat 7 on Dec 20. The 3yo filly dropped back the rear of the field in the early stages but was way too classy late, peeling to the middle of the track around the bend and displaying a lovely turn of foot to record a dominant victory in the fastest time of the morning. She ran really well in her first career prep, finishing 2nd and 4th, but her latest prep saw her finish 13L last where she was immediately tipped out, likely an issue or just not coming up for the prep. Given more time, she’s back now as a 3yo and looks in good order.
No bet recommended - scratched from Mornington on Sunday due to the barrier. Drawn well here and gets the claim, but is very short and just don't want to recommend a bet at ~$1.70 but do concede she'll be very hard to beat. Rich Glow is a big big danger.
Last Updated: 7:29am (QLD) on Tuesday, 3rd January 2023.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 706x runners | 217x winners (31%) & 226x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.07 WIN $2.28 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1123x runners | 276x winners (25%) & 310x placings (52%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.13 WIN $3.00 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 45x runners | 27x wins (60%) & 12x placings (87%)
Medium Confidence: 93x runners | 38x wins (41%) & 28x placings (71%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 83x runners | 19x wins (23%) & 25x placings (53%)
Low Confidence: 18x runners | 4x wins (22%) & 5x placings (50%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):