BlackBook - Tuesday, 29 March 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 29 March 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


NOTE: No Victorian races on Monday and we don't have any BlackBook runners on Tuesday at Benalla but there were a couple worth mentioning.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Benalla, Race 1 - STARLEA

Prior to the first up run, STARLEA jumped out well on Feb 18 but her more recent Feb 25 jump out was iffy. She ran well first up despite racing in restricted room early and closing well late when she got out where she ran the 2nd fastest L800m/600m/400m and the fastest L200m of the meeting. She finished 3rd with a 2.2L gap to 4th where we’ve since seen Junko (4th) win by 5.5L and Whispering Tycoon (5th) win by 3.8L. They had a 3.8L gap on 6th…


That first up run rated +3.1, which is the best last start rating of the race and in her last 6x runs, the worst rating she’s had is +7.2, which would be the second best last start rating of this race. So she just needs to run to any of her previous runs last preparation or her first up run to be very competitive here.


Good to see HOT AND STRONG and PANDA’S POST both come out of this race having both won races over the past couple of days. She’s got the race fitness on most of the rest of the field and has good form and ratings behind her as well, so this looks a nice race to finally break the maiden - she’s always been there abouts and looks the one to beat.


The ~$2.15ish is too short to be diving into for us for a non-BlackBook runner, but one to keep in mind if you are playing this race.


Benalla, Race 2 - KEEP THE COIN

Thought KEEP THE COIN closed super in a Mar 23 jump out, likewise in a previous Mar 9 jump out and looks to be travelling well ahead of his return. His debut run rated +10.8 with his second up run rating +6.8, which is the best last start rating of the race and the third best peak rating of the race - so a repeat of either of those runs, especially his latest run, has him competitive here.


Drawn barrier 17 of 18, which comes into barrier 13 after scratchings and isn't ideal but he’ll likely go back anyway, especially from that barrier and have the last crack at them late.


We probably should've played the $31+ in early markets, which comes into ~$25 post deductions. It wouldn't surprise to see him drift from the current quote of ~$18, so we'll put ½ of our stake on now at $18 and the other ½ on at the SP for that likely drift. Not a stack of confidence, but want to have a small spec.


BLACKBOOK NOTIFICATIONS

We'll be tweeting each and every time the BlackBook is posted with bets or finalised for the day from now on so no one misses an update and can make the most of early odds when we're playing - head to Twitter (click here) if you're not already following us.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.


We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 0.30 units.


Benalla, Race 2

KEEP THE COIN ~ 0.15 units WIN @ $18.00 (TAB)

KEEP THE COIN ~ 0.15 units WIN @ Betfair SP (Betfair)


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +10.55 units at Recommend Price | +44.84 units at Betfair SP

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