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BlackBook - Tuesday, 28 March 2023

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 28 March 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.


BALLARAT - Race 2

OTHER

A pair of jump out wins now for #4 EASY JAY, the first coming on Feb 27 ahead of Rolls with the latest in Heat 10 on Mar 16 where he went straight to the front and won with ease when leading the whole way. He clocked the fastest 850m time of the morning in the process and certainly wasn’t slowing down late, extending away further past the line as he hit the line with pace. He was previously with J Pride in NSW where he was a previous $100k purchase and while he might not have made it there, he certainly looks to have enough talent to be winning a country maiden at the very least.

 
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY

Runners

Confidence - Comments

Ballarat, Race 2

#4 EASY JAY (5) - V Malady

Medium.

This gelding couldn't have done much more ahead of his debut here - two jump out wins and both from the front so expect him to go forward here and be in it a long way.


THE EXTREME CAT was only real danger worth worrying about and he's since been the scratched - the rest of the field is very open and all could pop up and win. The Snowden horse is the main danger now.


The obvious query is the Heavy track - it could be a matter of who handles it the best but we do know that EASY JAY jumped out on it in his first JO win on Feb 27, which adds some confidence and like that he'll be on speed - don't want to be back and trying to make ground on a Heavy track at Ballarat. The race is out of a chute start so B5 of 7 shouldn't be a worry at all.


We have EASY JAY on top and happy to bet accordingly - he's $3.20+ this morning so happy to take that and think he's more a ~$2.50 chance.

If he gets closer to $2, think it's not worth betting and just let him go around without anything on.

BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - WATCHLIST

Ballarat, Race 4

#1 SIR ROCKFORD (5) - A Laing

BlackBook jump out comments:

Nice return from SIR ROCKFORD, finishing 2nd in Heat 9 on Feb 27. Keep an eye on him into a second jump out, he was unlucky not to break the maiden in his debut prep and certainly has a maiden win in him.

Last Updated: 7:39am AEDT on Tuesday, 28th March 2023.

 
STAKING

We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.


Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".


This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.

If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.

If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.

If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.


We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):

BetSmart
.pdf
Download PDF • 920KB

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