BlackBook - Tuesday, 28 December 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 28 December 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


YARRA VALLEY - Race 1

OTHER

Slick return for #4 LOVIE MAY, winning Heat 7 on Dec 6 in nice time with the talented Rock Artist finishing 2nd out wide. She led along the inside in this heat and went to the line untouched with the 3yo filly returning for her second preparation despite not getting to the races as a 2yo after a pair of jump outs in June. Expect to see another jump out prior to debut - one to watch.


YARRA VALLEY - Race 3

#6 IL BRACCIO (7) - L McGill

IL BRACCIO was too good for them in a 600m jump out on Oct 20, showing good speed again to win Heat 6 on Nov 3 quite comfortably in the end. He’s a 3yo gelding owned by Glenhuntly Lodge and his trainer Logan McGill, so suspect they have an opinion of him and we certainly have an opinion of him after some nice jump outs. Hoping to see one more 800m+ jump out prior to his debut to have some real confidence, even if he doesn’t, he can still go close on debut following these bits of work.


IL BRACCIO is certainly one we should follow into his debut now. We mentioned him after a Nov 3 jump out over 800m where he won comfortably and that backed up his 600m Oct 20 jump out. We mentioned we wanted to see one more 800m+ jump out prior to his debut, and instead we got a 1000m trial, which is even better. He travelled well on speed in Heat 12 on Nov 23 and just cruised to the line under no pressure from Campbell Rawiller, going through the motions and moving well. Keen to follow him into a debut now.


A couple of talented 3yo gelding’s finished 1st and 2nd in Heat 4 on Dec 15. ALLGREEKTOME was 1st, defeating IL BRACCIO in 2nd by 3.5L and then a massive 6L gap back to 3rd, all while clocking the fastest 950m time of the morning in the process. IL BRACCIO is a past feature of our reviews and he did his credentials no harm with this performance. He’s had plenty of jump outs and trials now, so there will be no queries on his professionalism and fitness on debut, he just needs to head to the races now. Keen to follow him.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Yarra Valley, Race 1

Nice maiden. NO BABY NO has been unlucky not to break the maiden with four placings in her first four career runs, all of them rating well enough to be competitive here. We were on SMOKIN' HOLLY first up, she finished 2nd (ahhhh) but there was a huge 6L gap to 3rd and we've seen Foxicon since run a close 1.4L 6th at Caulfield on Saturday while the run rated +3.5, which is the best last start rating coming into this. She also gets the blinkers on and is the one to beat for us with NO BABY NO the second pick.


LOVIE MAY has jumped out well but draw's barrier 11 of 12 and has only had the one jump out. She has a bit to overcome with the barrier and might need the run.


Yarra Valley, Race 3

We're on IL BRACCIO in the early markets, so hopefully we have a nice price after he opened $26 on TAB (tipped at $19 with $11-$12 available over the weekend and $9.50 available on Monday). Couple of scratchings now with $0.16 deductions but none of the prices move, so $10 is still available this morning and worth a bet.

Not sure how an $8 and $10 horse can get scratched for $0.16 deduction, but the prices don't move at all?


TRICOLOGY deserves to be favourite, but he looks a touch short for us at $1.25. He ran well on debut when 2nd to Airclash with a 3.5L gap back to third and his run rating +1.1. That's the best last start rating and best peak rating of this race. DAYTONA BAY scratched, as expected.

TURF FLYER ran well first up (rated +2.9) behind Writey O'pal and Pagan, but he is a 12 start maiden and had his chance.


We have an opinion of IL BRACCIO though and he's had plenty of jump outs and trials so there should be no queries on how forward he is for this. Expect him to be ready to go and from barrier 7, he can put himself right there and is a big chance to win - he's a medium confidence bet for us with TRICOLOGY the one we have to (and can) beat.

Race morning, we're adding a PLC bet for IL BRACCIO as think he runs top three in this and we can have a nice place bet.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 4.00 units.


Yarra Valley, Race 3

IL BRACCIO ~ 2.00 units WIN @ $15.96 (TAB, post deductions)

IL BRACCIO ~ 2.00 units PLC @ $2.05 (Bet365) or $1.95 (TAB)


Overall: -4.35 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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