Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 27 December 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
STONY CREEK - Race 4
#4 THE BRILL BUILDING ran 3rd on debut at Sale where he was 1.6L behind Katsu (who won a BM64 at his next start) and Lady Di Di (since ran 2nd and 3rd in MDN’s). Given a let-up, he returned 2-stone lighter (gelded) for a 800m jump out on Nov 29 where he won nicely. He stepped up to 1000m in Heat 3 on Dec 13 where he led throughout but really opened up a big gap on the field in the straight when put under pressure, winning by a good margin in quick time, the second quickest time we have recorded. He was in the market on debut and ran well so the fact he’s now been gelded with some nice jump outs, he should be going well first up.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Stony Creek, Race 4
#4 THE BRILL BUILDING (8) - P Stokes
He's led in most of his work, so barrier 8 of 8 isn't ideal but it's a 300-400m back straight at Stony Creek and there is only one bend, so he will have plenty of time to go forward and try cross to get the lead. If he gets across, he will be hard to catch and beat.
This is a solid maiden - Khalida has jumped out well, as has Kollantai despite not much like in her JO's. Thought Extravagant Choice has been just okay at JO's.
His jump outs have been good, his form from debut is good and he's been gelded, all big ticks. Happy to be with him and backing him, but not super confident so playing him for ½ stake and wanting a better price than the ~$2.40 this morning so we'll be playing late/SP.
Last Updated: 8:48am on Tuesday, 27th December 2022.
Overall Results by Category (since Aug 2020):
'Highlighted' Runners: 706x runners | 217x winners (31%) & 226x placings (63%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.07 WIN $2.28 PLC
'Other' Runners: 1112x runners | 272x winners (24%) & 304x placings (52%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.20 WIN $3.01 PLC
Overall Results by Confidence (since Aug 2022):
High Confidence: 44x runners | 26x wins (59%) & 12x placings (86%)
Medium Confidence: 86x runners | 36x wins (42%) & 23x placings (69%)
Low/Medium Confidence: 80x runners | 18x wins (23%) & 24x placings (53%)
Low Confidence: 18x runners | 4x wins (22%) & 5x placings (50%)
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):