Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 26 October 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.
SWAN HILL - Race 4
OTHER
Thought #10 LATE NIGHT REWARD held his own against the multiple time winner Smart Design in Heat 8 on Oct 14 where they clocked the second fastest 850m trial of the morning and gapped 3rd by 5L. These two runners went straight to the front together and left the rest of the field in their wake. Smart Design got the better late but they had a bit on everyone else. This backs up his Sep 28 win at Bendigo and he is certainly one to watch out for on debut.
OUR THOUGHTS
Swan Hill, Race 4 - LATE NIGHT REWARD
Won't have to be a superstar to win this and is certainly the pick of the un-raced on debut. The best last start benchmark rating coming into this is MONSOON REINS with +13.2, which is nothing special and he's the $2.30 favourite this morning. MOON AND BACK is the one that looks like she will go well, starting favourite on debut but being disappointing and returning here after a spell and an impressive jump out win.
We're worried that the 975m is going to be short of his best trip. He's out of the mare Croatian Quality, who won three career races over 1600m, 1700m and 2100m. Would've much preferred a 1100m-1200m debut race for her. In saying that, we were originally happy to let him go around with no plays but we've decided to settle on a low confidence E/W bet as we expect him to run top 3 at worst.
OUR BETS
We're trialling a new 'units' system to have a new way of recording and showing our bets and results. As a rule of thumb, we'll follow the following staking:
0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.
0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.
1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.
2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.
5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.
Total outlay is 2.00 units.
Swan Hill, Race 4
LATE NIGHT REWARD ~ 1.00 units WIN @ $5.50 + 1.00 units PLC @ $1.80 (Bet365)
Overall: + 0.40 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).
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