BlackBook - Tuesday, 23 November 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 23 November 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


GEELONG - Race 3

OTHER

#2 CHIEF CONDUCTOR is a very expensive colt, and his win in Heat 8 on Nov 9 (red) was that of a colt that might have a little bit of talent. He was given a push over the concluding stages, but liked the way he responded in his second jump out. He’s an I Am Invincible colt out of the Group 1 winning mare Snitzerland that was a $600k purchase. He moves alright.


He had the benefit of race fitness having already had the first up run when 6th by 6L, but #13 POWER CRUNCH was a very slick winner of Heat 3 on Nov 15. Last preparation he ran 3rd second up after running 11th first up, so expect some improvement second up this preparation especially on the back of this mid-prep jump out where he looks to be in good order. Think he needs to lead and if he does, he’ll can give a sight.


GEELONG - Race 9

OTHER

#5 HURTLE cruised to a victory in Heat 3 on Nov 3 in the fastest 850m time of the morning. He was a 5.5L winner on debut but disappointing second up when last by 14L, starting $2.40 that day and clearly being well short of his best and spelled immediately. He’s capable of winning some races in his second career preparation.


Nice win for #15 NUMPTY over the 1000m, coming over the top under minimal pressure in Heat 4 on Nov 16.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Geelong, Race 3 - CHIEF CONDUCTOR + POWER CRUNCH

We're mindful of NO BABY NO second up (who we were on first up along with the winner).


Expecting CHIEF CONDUCTOR to make a good debut here as well after a couple of nice jump outs. Barrier 4 is a lovely draw and it's no surprise to see him as the favourite. No knocks at all.


POWER CRUNCH will make the field as second emergency and looks the overs. He brings in the third best last start rating at +10.9 and the fourth best peak benchmark rating at +2.9. Last preparation, he resumed gelded and ran poor first up before leading and running well second up when 2nd and then failing at Flemington third up when leading as well. This preparation, he was 6th first up but behind a smart subsequent winner in Unflinching where 1st, 2nd and 3rd have since won and 4th was also an unlucky 4th since. Good form coming into this and with barrier 6 and a nice jump out between runs, he can go forward here, lead and give a good sight at a big price.


Monday night after the deductions have been taken out from the scratchings, we were keen to have a low confidence bet on POWER CRUNCH at the $21 (Bet365) or $16 (TAB) available, which was quickly into $9 - $11 and $13 on Bet365.


Hopefully some got the $21/$16, even the $13 that was available on Bet365. If you haven't, probably best to wait until closer to the jump or back him on the Betfair SP as he likely doesn't get too much shorter. Thought ~$10 was about his right price.


Geelong, Race 9 - HURTLE + NUMPTY

NUMPTY makes the field after a stack of scratchings, especially for a BM64 on a Good track. She can resume well here but the 1140m is likely short of her best having never raced below 1200m before and getting out over 1400m/1500m last preparation.

HURTLE resumes here and was scratched from a race over the weekend to go here. He brings in the second best peak benchmark rating and can go well here from barrier 1 - likely leads. He's the one to beat in this race for us.


No bets from us in this race.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 0.50 units.


Geelong, Race 3

POWER CRUNCH ~ 0.50 units WIN @ $16.00 (TAB at 8:25pm, Mon)


Overall: +9.61 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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