BlackBook - Tuesday, 22 March 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 22 March 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


GEELONG - Race 2

OTHER

#7 SQUAD is speedy, leading from start to finish in Heat 8 on Mar 11 despite being under no jockey pressure throughout. The 2yo colt was a $470k Magic Millions purchase for Ruper Legh and was a quiet 2nd in a previous Mar 4 where he looks to be quite a nice mover. He’s nominated for the Golden Slipper (obviously won’t get there) and the Inglis Sires so we’ll keep an eye on this colt for his debut.


GEELONG - Race 3

OTHER

Of the four that went across the line in Heat 8 on Mar 15, being the fastest 800m time of the morning, #5 THE HASS was ridden the quietest and looked to be travelling the better of the four. The 3yo gelding finished behind Extreme Warrior in a previous Feb 14 jump out and looks to be moving well ahead of his return.


GEELONG - Race 4

OTHER

Superb turn of foot by #7 SMILING AMOS once he got clear air in the straight. The 3yo gelding travelled in behind the speed throughout Heat 5 on Mar 9, struggling for room early in the straight but was able to get a gap late and when he was asked for an effort briefly, he really responded and put them away to win with the talented Tinandali in 2nd. This was not dissimilar to his first jump out over 1000m on Feb 3 (3rd was Sauce Horsey who has since won a BM58 by 1.8L) but his middle jump out on Feb 15 behind Topeka saw him lead, which doesn’t look to suit him. This was nice though, he’s one to keep an eye on for debut.


Another all the way win for #10 SHARE THE RHYTHM, taking out Heat 10 on Feb 21 over 1000m in the second fastest time of the morning following her Feb 11 win. The 4yo mare is travelling well ahead of her return for her new Ben Brisbourne stable. LORD DOMINO certainly looked a lot more comfortable and better as he cruised into 2nd, resuming off an 8-week let up.


Very keen to follow #13 TOPEKA into a mid-week maiden first up, she looks to be flying at the jump outs this time in. She won a Feb 3 jump out ahead of Star Of Manhattan (who won Heat 2 just after this)that caught our eye, backing it up with another win in Heat 1 on Feb 15 over the 800m where she sat in behind the speed before being presented at the top of the straight, pushed along and showing that lovely turn of foot she has to put a 2-3L gap on them and win in the second fastest time of the morning. She’s travelling super and should be competitive first up.


GEELONG - Race 5

OTHER

#4 SILVER BOOTS won Heat 14 on Feb 25 in the fastest time of the morning, leading from start to finish in a nice bit of work. After having four races over 1000m/1100m, he stepped up to 1300m and won very impressively. After closing well over the concluding stages in a Feb 14 jump out, he might be able to go on with it now.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Geelong, Race 2

We were happy to leave this race. CANNONBALL closed well on Mar 4 behind Keysborough, who we have a nice opinion of. KATSU jumped out quite well as well and our runner in SQUAD is certainly a nice chance here.


Geelong, Race 3

THE HASS deserves to be favourite, but not sure he quite jumped out in the fashion of a ~$3 favourite and as a result, we were happy to not bet. Have him as the top selection though.

TRIUMPHANTLY can run a nice race - jump outs were nice when coming from the back, making good ground past the line and expect the same here on debut. These jump outs were on Mar 4 and Mar 11. Has been very well supported in the markets after opening $26.

HONGBAO has been gelded and has won 2x jump outs in preparation for this and can go okay here too.


Geelong, Race 4 - TOPEKA

We were on TOPEKA first up after some super jump outs - she was well backed and jumped a $2.50 SP favourite but was ridden upside down to lead and didn't finish off. No surprise to see her pull up with a slow recovery while the jockey said that "the filly was not suited being pressured for the lead", which also wasn't surprising. The run rated +5.7, which is one of the top ratings of the race but they went way too quick early. She's had a freshen up and she actually beat the favourite in SMILING AMOS in a jump out.


At $9+ in early markets, going to have a small bet early - glad we got on in the early markets as she's been smashed. Our $9 comes to $7.92 post deductions of $0.12 on TAB, with her currently at $4 now (as of 8:10am).


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.


We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


Total outlay is 0.75 units.


Geelong, Race 4

TOPEKA ~ 0.75 units WIN @ $9.00 (TAB and Bet365).


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): +5.61 units at Recommend Price | +42.17 units at Betfair SP

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