BlackBook - Tuesday, 22 February 2022

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 22 February 2022. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


STAWELL - Race 1

OTHER

#3 FATALE BLISS ran 2nd to Yulong Sovereign while gapping subsequent winner I’m Still Standing (2.3L back in 3rd)on debut. The now-4yo mare was spelled and has changed stables now to Andrew Bobbin, returning with a solid jump out when cruising to the line just behind in 2nd to Midnight Dream in Heat 6 on Jan 11. She’d be very well suited in a country maiden - hope to see one more jump out prior to resuming for the new stable.


STAWELL - Race 2

OTHER

We were very keen on #2 BELLUNA on debut at a big price and she was very disappointing, finishing 10th by 7.5L but she did pull up with a slow recovery after only having one jump out (5 weeks) prior to her debut. She returned in Heat 4 on Feb 15, finishing 2nd to Ashford Street with a huge gap back to 3rd. She’s got lovely gate speed, leading throughout this heat and being pushed along late, which should really bring her on. We’d love to see another jump out to get a real gauge on her and have her primed for her return as we do think she has talent.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Stawell, Race 1 - FATALE MISS

She was down to run before the meeting got called off because of a fire at the race track. She then headed back to the jump outs on Feb 3 when beaten a long way back in 4th with the winner being Pegasi (since 2nd BM68 in SA) and 2nd place being The Sistine Tales (who burnt us first up when 5th in a MDN at $2.50 SP) - she was never pressured or asked for any effort though, it was simply a gallop around to get her ready for her first up run here.


Now with Andrew Bobbin, the blinkers go on for the first up even though she didn't wear them in either of her jump outs. Only a small field of 6x here with 4x first starters - if she runs to how she did on debut, then she will be hard to beat here and she deserves to be a short priced favourite.


INTERMIX jumped out alright at Avoca, clocking 49.67s for the 800m vs FATALE BLISS' heat clocking 47.20s (she was a long way back vs INTERMIX winning). Looks to be the only danger for us.


In saying that though, it's hard to trust first up especially after a really quiet jump out and especially at ~$1.85 odds. Would be expecting her to win but she can do so without our money.


Stawell, Race 2 - BELLUNA

Similar to the above, it's hard to trust this filly. Prior to her debut she had only the one jump out (which was super) and went straight to 1400m at Sandown (whilst holding a Thousand Guineas nomination) and was really disappointing but she did have a slow recovery. We have a similar set up here in terms of the one jump out prior to the first up run, but she resumes at 1100m instead and leaves the query of if she'll be looking for further and also if she'll need the run?


Would expect her to push forward from barrier 1 and lead, but if she does get crossed (potentially by SHOCKING HABIT) then we might see her over-racing (again) and we might see a repeat performance of her debut. I'd be expecting her to take a stack of improvement from this run while the market is suggesting she will win as she's been smashed into ~$2.50. She's the one to beat, but she'll have to be winning without our money due to a few too many question marks.


Might be worth a bet if she got out late to ~$4ish (somehow) for a 1.0-1.5 unit play, but $2.50 makes it tough. Could multi both of today's runners?


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.00 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

In addition, we'll put more of an emphasis on our highlighted runners (medium to high confidence bets) and lower bets on our 'Other' runners (low confidence). This is because the highlighted runners are striking at much more favourable 31% WIN & 62% PLC since August 2020 for 600+ runners.


We recommend you have a TAB, TopSport (click here), Bet365 and Betfair account.


No plays. Total outlay is 0.00 units.


Overall (since 21 Oct, 2021): -0.49 units at Recommend Price | +36.31 units at Betfair SP

When you sign up, select 'JumpOuts' for how you Heard About them and "JUMPOUTS" in the Promo Code.



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