BlackBook - Tuesday, 21 December 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 21 December 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


GEELONG - Race 2

OTHER

A maiden win can’t be far for #8 HER EMPIRE, closing well late to finish 2nd in Heat 2 on Dec 10 after trailing the leaders throughout and peeling off their backs late. The 3yo filly is coming off an 11-week let up after finishing 2.3L off stablemate Seradess in a Group 3 and just behind the likes of Decent Raine, which is form that will stack up in pretty much any maiden if that is the way she goes when she resumes.

KIATA was super quick when winning Heat 1 on Nov 30, clocking the quickest time of the morning by 2s but she does have the benefit of two runs under her belt this preparation. The 2nd horse across the line was the 98-rated Deep Image, but quiet on the inside just in behind Kiata was the 3-start maiden #10 POPPET who certainly didn’t look out of place. She just followed Kiata throughout and cruised to the line in only her first jump out back. If she was in any other jump out she wins comfortably… big watch on her.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Geelong - Race 2

If HER EMPIRE runs to any of her last five career runs, then she is going to be very very hard to beat. Of those runs, the worst rating is +3.4, where the best career peak of anyone in this race is +4.9 (PAPER DRAGON). Only had the one jump out but she's coming off a short break and it was super alongside past winners such as Narvaez and Northern Melody. Barrier 2 is a lovely draw so he should just get a spot in behind the speed and be too good late. The $1.90 is a bit shorter than her previous prices though... starting $41, $81, $10 and $51 in her past four career starts. In saying that, she's the deserved odds-on favourite.


POPPET is the one at odds that could run a race. Ratings wise she needs to improve, but her jump out was really nice however, she has only had the one so a slight query on how forward she is first up here.


We're going to play HER EMPIRE and have a small spec on POPPET, for a high confidence bet overall. Think HER EMPIRE is more likely to drift to ~$2 or so than get backed in to $1.50, so we'll play at the SP and lock in the price for POPPET.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 3.00 units.


Geelong, Race 2

HER EMPIRE ~ 2.85 units WIN @ Betfair SP

POPPET ~ 0.15 units WIN @ $20.00 (TopSport at 8:40am)


Overall: -0.95 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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