Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 20 September 2022. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - these are are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Summary" with our confidence and thoughts. We have also included some runners in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" that are those worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race.
HORSHAM - Race 2
#1 FIELD OF FLUTES was well backed on debut in the $250k VOBIS Gold Rush at Bendigo where he led but faded late, pulling up with a slow recovery that resulted in him being spelled and now gelded. He has won two jump outs back now, both in the same circumstances where he has led and been too good. His first was over 900m on Aug 15 and the latest being over 850m in Heat 10 on Sep 2 where he also clocked the fastest time of the morning. He’s a Deep Field gelding that was a $140k purchase, so connections will be hoping he can now bring his jump out form to the races and we’ll be hoping he is more than just a jump out specialist because he leads. Monitor where he ends up first up this preparation.
We've started up a Telegram Channel (for Updates) and Group (for Chat) so that we can send notifications and early updates etc. plus also just have some general racing banter and chat in the group. You don't have to join, but we would recommend it...!!
Follow the steps below:
1. Download Telegram on your device using the following link: https://telegram.org
2. Join the "BlackBook Updates" channel using the following link: https://t.me/+4gAUzhHXzrU4OTQ1
3. Join the "BlackBook Chat" group using the following link: https://t.me/+jdE9tx0l-NljM2I9
BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Warracknabeal, Race 2
#1 FIELD OF FLUTES (6) - C Maher & D Eustace
He's been gelded and won 2x JO's ahead of his return here and looks in really good order. Straight to the front, lead and win will likely be the plan from barrier 6 and especially now the race is at Warracknabeal - Linda Meech on board signals that intent. He's the top winning chance and looks to be hard to beat.
The issue is the price, currently ~$1.70, which we're not too keen to be taking. Looking for ~$2+ late, hopefully.
Last Updated: 8:25am on Tuesday, 20th September 2022.
Results (Aug '20 to Today):
687x runners | 208x winners (30%) & 218x placings (62%)
Ave Betfair SP | $8.23 WIN $2.30 PLC
990x runners | 230x winners (23%) & 273x placings (51%)
Ave Betfair SP | $12.40 WIN $3.05 PLC
How you stake and bet our runners is completely up to you. Everyone takes a different approach to their staking - we know some like to back each runner to profit the same (e.g. profit 10 units for each runner), some back each runner according to our confidence (e.g. 1 unit for low/medium, 2 units for medium, 3 units for high etc.) and many others.
Personally, we follow a system where we bet on the win only (no place) to collect 4% of our bank on every runner. For example, if your starting bank is $10,000, then you will be betting to collect $400 (4%).
If a runner is $2, you will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, you will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, you will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):