BlackBook - Tuesday, 2 November 2021

Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 2 November 2021. The runner's highlighted are our #BlackBook runners (the key runners of focus), while those included in the 'other' section of each race are additional runner's that have jumped out well enough to be worth noting. Our figures and benchmark ratings are from PuntingForm.


FLEMINGTON - Race 1

OTHER

Nice win by the expensive colt #9 QUINLAN in Heat 3 on Oct 15, extending away late and looking to have a really nice action. He also had a nice Sep 20 trial in NSW behind Victory Moments (who was favourite on debut but failed) and Zambezi River (2nd on debut) and looks to have some talent. Can’t ignore the fact that he’s a $600k Magic Millions colt that’s a half-brother to Meuse out of the mare Precious Lorraine that was a talented horse herself winning a Group 3 over 2400m and finishing 8th in the Oaks. This colts a nice mover.

 
OUR THOUGHTS

Flemington, Race 1 - QUINLAN

No full preview for this race, but this colt really caught our eye at the jump outs and he gets a very noticeable gear addition of the BLINKERS for this race... which is usually a good sign for a Gai Waterhouse runner especially with him jumping out well without them on. His jump out win was the third fastest time of the morning too.


He's a half-brother to Meuse, who won her first two races as a 2YO so has some 2YO form in the family. The first time up the straight is a definite query but with barrier 1 he can follow the rail and show that late turn of foot he showed in his jump out. He looks a nice mover and thought he was one at nice odds that could give this a shake.


It's another very even 2YO race. We feel as though there aren't any real stand out 2YO's yet besides Coolangatta from Sydney, which makes it very very hard to analyse.

Brett Prebble and Waterhouse/Bott have a profitable combination too with 4 winners from 19 rides at +71.8% P.O.T. At the price, we can have a spec/low confidence bet on him. One to play with all the bookies promotions for bonus backs.


OUR BETS

As a rule of thumb, our new 'units' system will be based on the following staking plan:

  • 0.25 units is a speculation ('spec') bet at a bigger price.

  • 0.50 units to 1.00 units is a low confidence bet.

  • 1.00 units to 2.00 units is a medium confidence bet.

  • 2.50 units to 3.00 units is a high confidence bet.

  • 5.00 units is the maximum bet and is a 'special', or a very high confidence bet.

Total outlay is 0.50 units.


Flemington, Race 1

QUINLAN ~ 0.50 units WIN @ $12.00 (TAB at 8:05am)


Overall: - 3.15 units (since 21 Oct, 2021).


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