Please see below for our #BlackBook runner comments for Tuesday, 18 July 2023. All #BlackBook runners come from our weekly reviews and our split into two categories - those that we are betting are summarised in our "BlackBook Runners - Tips Summary" with our confidence and race thoughts, while those we aren't betting are included in our "BlackBook Runners - Watchlist" and are worth keeping in mind if you're playing the race. For information on our staking, see here.
BALLARAT - Race 2
STEEL JIMMY went to the line with Governor in that Jun 28 jump out before stepping out in Heat 9 on Jul 12 where he led and went to the line with a bit in the tank, but was overran on the line by Brechen but if you watch past the line, he was bolting and had him covered with ease. He’s an unraced 3yo son of Jimmy Creed and you certainly can’t knock his work at the jump outs ahead of his debut.
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BLACKBOOK RUNNERS - TIPS SUMMARY
Confidence - Comments
Ballarat, Race 2
We were monitoring LET HER RAIN following some solid jump outs, the second one a win ahead of subsequent winner Craft Star. She had minimal luck first up here at Ballarat over 1000m, sitting 3-wide without cover throughout and going down by only 0.4L to the horse that sat inside her - watching the race, she some slight ground at the top of the straight but really got into her work late as she attacked the line, clocking the meetings fastest L600m, 3rd fastest L400m and 4th fastest L200m. She clocked 58.92s while the favourite MAGNUS WARNING clocked 59.34s over the same track and distance as a comparison where they both went 33.80s for the L600m but MAGNUS WARNING clocked 11.48s for L200m vs LET HER RAIN 11.52s.
Like the step up to 1200m and drawn barrier 1 here, she won’t be trapped wide and should get a lovely run throughout.
STEEL JIMMY has jumped out well but is drawn wide and will likely need some luck.
We have LET HER RAIN as the horse to beat and happy to bet at the ~$4 but also want to save on STEEL JIMMY at the ~$8 to breakeven.
#6 STEEL JIMMY (9) - S Keating
#10 LET HER RAIN (1) - M Cunningham
Last Updated: 7:36am AEDT on Tuesday, 18th July 2023.
We know that everyone takes a different approach to their staking, which is why we don't delve into specific staking for each of our runners and we leave how you stake and bet our runners completely up to the individual.
Personally, we have followed different staking systems over the years to fine tune our own punting, but have found that the most profitable approach is to follow a "Collect system".
This system means that the punter (us) bets on the win only (no place bet) to collect 4% of our bank on every BlackBook runner we have. To begin, you need to select a starting bank - as an example, a starting bank of $10,000 will see us betting to collect $400 (4%) on each runner.
If a runner is $2, we will bet $200 @2 to collect $400.
If a runner is $20, we will bet $20 @20 to collect $400.
If a runner is $3.50, we will bet ~$114 @3.50 to collect ~$400.
We highly recommend having a read of the below PDF document from Dan O'Sullivan in regard to the Six Rules to Increase Profit, Staking like a Professional and Punting As An Investment (see here):